Colgate vs St. John's prediction: Eligibility questions shadow St. John's remade roster as Colgate visits Queens

A new Red Storm, with asterisks

Almost nothing about last season's St. John's team is still in Queens. Players on this roster account for just 17.8% of last season's minutes. Zuby Ejiofor, Dillon Mitchell and Bryce Hopkins all went in the NBA draft, and Oziyah Sellers left for SMU. Pitino, starting his fourth season, restocked through the portal, and the No. 13 Red Storm were picked second in the Big East.

That makes last season's numbers a weak guide. The Red Storm finished 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), but most of the players who built that number are gone. A better early read came on Oct. 25, when St. John's beat No. 7 Texas 87-74 in an exhibition at Madison Square Garden.

The bigger question is who will be eligible. Keyshawn Hall's status is unresolved, and reports conflict over whether a court order keeps him on the floor. Babacar Sane, a captain, is playing under a temporary restraining order, and his eligibility hearing is set for Nov. 9, two days before this game. Bailey has won an injunction in his case. Donnie Freeman will miss the entire season after rupturing his right Achilles tendon in summer workouts.

Colgate brings its core back

Colgate has the opposite problem: continuity without its best player. The Raiders return 53.5% of last season's minutes from an 18-15 team, but Jalen Cox, who averaged 17.9 points, is now at USC. Ben Tweedy also left, for Manhattan.

Alekseyenko is the one to watch. He averaged 14.7 points and shot 38.3% from three last season as a rookie who started every game. Sam Wright, the other returning starter at forward, added 12.3 points. Matt Langel also brought in George Mason transfer Isaiah Skinn and two freshmen. The Raiders were picked to tie for third in the Patriot League.

The fight over possessions

Colgate's best habit last season was protecting the ball. Its turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) of 14.9% ranked 50th nationally. St. John's forced turnovers at a 19.3% rate, 61st. That pressure came from players who have left, but Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou brings 2.0 steals per game from last season.

The glass looks more one-sided. Colgate's offensive rebound rate of 27.1% ranked 305th, so the Raiders rarely got second chances. St. John's grabbed 35.2% of its own misses, 52nd in the country. If the new frontcourt keeps that identity, Colgate's shooters will get one look per trip and St. John's will often get two.

Threes and free throws

Colgate's best offensive trait last season was shooting. Its effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 54.2% ranked 77th last season, and it made 35.9% of its threes. Last season's St. John's defense took that shot away. Opponents' 3-point attempt rate ranked 346th, meaning few teams let opponents shoot fewer threes, and opponents made just 31.3%.

The free-throw line tilts toward the home team. St. John's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 40.2% ranked 54th. Colgate's rate of 29.2% ranked 322nd, so the Raiders rarely earned easy points. Hall, who made 85.7% of his free throws at Auburn, would help St. John's cash in those trips if he is cleared.

What to watch:

• Whether Hall and Sane are available after the Nov. 9 hearing.
• How many second-chance points Colgate gives up.
• Whether Alekseyenko gets clean looks from three.