Campbell vs East Tennessee State prediction: Campbell starts from zero as ETSU's rebuilt Bucs host in Johnson City

A program wiped clean

Campbell's roster returns 0.0% of last season's minutes. Nobody who played for the Camels in 2025-26 is back, and neither is the coach. John Andrzejek left to become an associate head coach at Louisville, and the school named Jimmie Williams its seventh head coach of the Division I era on Apr. 8. Williams arrives from Division II Anderson.

The departures are the whole offense. DJ Smith averaged 19.0 points last season, Jeremiah Johnson (now at Tulsa) added 15.2, and Dovydas Butka took his rebounding to Boise State. Last season's 16-18 team finished with an adjusted net efficiency of -2.4 (points per 100 possessions relative to opponents, adjusted for schedule), 197th of 365. With no returners, that rating describes a team that no longer exists.

ETSU keeps a sliver

East Tennessee State turned over too, just not as completely. The Bucs return 24.4% of last season's minutes and 20.3% of the points from a 23-11 team that reached the SoCon tournament final before losing to Furman. Last season's adjusted net efficiency ranked 145th, a weaker number than the record suggests.

The biggest losses were efficient ones. Brian Taylor II averaged 14.9 points, and Blake Barkley, now at Grand Canyon, scored 14.3 a night with a 127.1 offensive rating (points produced per 100 possessions used). What remains is a supporting cast. Maki Johnson made 36.4% of his threes last season, and Jordan McCullum started 31 games up front. Neither carried a big load, but both know Brooks Savage's system, which is more than any Camel can say.

Guards in, guards out

Both coaches went shopping for perimeter scoring. Campbell's headliner is Lance Waddles, who started every game at Omaha last season and shot 38.2% from three on 204 attempts. He should be the first option for a team that needs one badly. South Carolina transfer Nordin Kapic and three freshmen, among them Klairus Amir and Dominykas Butka, fill out a roster with no settled starting five.

ETSU stacked guards with starting experience. BJ Ward ran the offense at Southeast Missouri State and averaged 3.7 assists. Jayden Cooper scored 11.5 points a game at South Alabama, and Trevor Hennig added 10.0 at Weber State. None was especially efficient last season, so how quickly they share the ball may decide whether ETSU's depth becomes an edge.

The defense Savage built

If any identity survives the turnover, it is ETSU's defense under a returning staff. Last season the Bucs ranked 16th nationally in steal rate. They also let opponents shoot plenty of threes, with the ninth-highest opponent 3-point attempt rate in the country, yet held them to 32.3% (89th). That is a scheme choice: run shooters off the line and live with contested jumpers.

Campbell's defense last season ranked 315th in efficiency, but that belonged to a different staff and roster. The more useful question is how a new group of Camels handles ball pressure in an early road game, before Williams has had many games to build chemistry.

Schedule and setting

ETSU plays this one at Freedom Hall after back-to-back road trips to Arizona State on Nov. 2 and NC State on Nov. 6. Those games will give the Bucs a hard early test and offer the first real evidence of what this roster is. Campbell's calendar stiffens right after, with trips to Oklahoma on Nov. 18 and Kansas State on Nov. 20.

• Waddles' volume: whether Campbell's offense runs through him or spreads out.
• ETSU's turnovers forced: an early read on whether last season's pressure carried over.
• Lessons from the high-major road trip: the box scores from Tempe and Raleigh will show whether the transfer guards have meshed.