Bethune-Cookman vs San Diego State prediction: San Diego State's new faces inherit a defense Bethune-Cookman must crack

Two rosters starting over

Almost nobody in this game has played for their current coach in a game that counted. San Diego State returns just 14.6% of last season's minutes, a near-total rebuild for Brian Dutcher after the Aztecs missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time in six seasons. Bethune-Cookman is barely more familiar with itself, with 24.3% of last season's minutes back.

That makes last season's team numbers a rough sketch, and the sketch still tilts hard toward the home side. Last season San Diego State finished 51st of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Bethune-Cookman finished 269th. The Aztecs' edge lived on defense, where they ranked 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Scheme travels from one roster to the next more easily than shooting does, which is why the defense is the part of San Diego State worth trusting before anyone has played a real game.

The Aztecs score with imports

The new offense comes from the portal. Nick Anderson made 40% of his threes at Rice last season, and he did it on 210 attempts. Chance Gladden averaged 14.4 points at Boston University and started alongside Latrell Davis and Elzie Harrington in the exhibition finale. Isaiah Sy, from Oregon State, led the team with 17 points in the first exhibition.

The finale was cleaner, a 92-67 win over Long Beach State with six players in double figures. Davis led the way with 14, and Harrington added 13.

Health is the open question. Davis (shoulder), Harrington (lower leg) and freshman forward Luka Skoric (groin) were all banged up in October, and Davis and Skoric sat out the Arizona exhibition. All three played on Oct. 28, with Skoric scoring 11 off the bench. Nothing newer has surfaced on any of them.

Life after Jakobi Heady

Reggie Theus, in his sixth season, has the defending SWAC regular-season champion, and the league picked Bethune-Cookman to finish first again. The man who carried that title team is gone. Jakobi Heady averaged 18.2 points last season with an offensive rating of 128.1, and no one on this roster comes close to that profile.

The returning frontcourt is the anchor. Daniel Rouzan started every game and averaged 11.8 points last season, and Quentin Heady is back with him. The guards are all new. Karmello Branch scored 12.1 a game at Kansas City but shot 36.4% from the field. Jameel Morris brings defense from Alcorn State, averaging 2.1 steals last season. Vuk Boskovic knows this city, having spent last season across town at San Diego.

Fouls, rim protection and giveaways

Last season's styles describe how each program likes to play, even with new faces. Bethune-Cookman attacked the paint and the whistle: it ranked 37th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) and 354th in 3-point attempt rate, meaning it took almost no threes. San Diego State was a generous foul team, 286th in opponent free throw rate.

That sounds like an opening for the Wildcats, with two catches. The Aztecs ranked 9th nationally in block rate, so the drives that draw fouls also run into shot-blockers. And Bethune-Cookman made just 69.0% of its free throws last season, which blunts the payoff.

Ball security is the other pressure point. Bethune-Cookman ranked 332nd in turnover rate last season, while San Diego State forced turnovers at the 35th-best rate. New guards could change the first number, but a road trip into a pressure defense is a hard place to start.

What to watch

• Early whistles. If Bethune-Cookman gets to the line often in the first half, its frontcourt can keep this tight.
• Anderson's volume. A Wildcat defense that let opponents shoot plenty of threes last season will see a lot of them from the Rice transfer.
• The injured trio. Davis, Harrington and Skoric all played Oct. 28; any change before the 2 p.m. PT tip on the Pac-12 YouTube channel reshapes the Aztec rotation.
• The market. No spread or total has been posted yet.