Bethesda University vs Pacific prediction: Pacific's veteran core opens against NCCAA Bethesda with Ralph's scoring to replace
Pacific's opener against a non-Division I visitor is a first look at how a team returning most of its minutes covers the loss of its top scorer.
- Pacific should control a non-Division I visitor; the real interest is how the offense looks without Elias Ralph.
- Watch TJ Wainwright as a lead scorer: he shot 38.8% from three last season and is now the top returning option.
- No spread or total has been posted; Pacific played at the 291st-fastest pace of 365 teams last season, a slow style.
A familiar team in Stockton
Pacific opens its season at the Alex G. Spanos Center against Bethesda University, an NCCAA program from outside NCAA Division I. The result matters less than the evidence. The Tigers bring back 78.2% of last season's minutes from an 18-15 team, so Dave Smart has a more settled roster than most early-season hosts.
That group finished last season 115th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). It won on the glass, ranking 8th in defensive rebound rate at 75.3%.
Filling Elias Ralph's shots
The one big loss is Ralph, who averaged 16.7 points last season with the team's highest usage. TJ Wainwright is the natural heir: 13.0 points a game last season and 92% at the line. Justin Rochelin adds a second shooter at 38.1% from three.
Isaac Jack is the efficiency piece inside, shooting 67.4% from the field last season with an offensive rating of 130. The newcomers are experienced: graduate guard Dominick Harris has played at Gonzaga, LMU, UCLA and Loyola Chicago, CJ Jones arrives by way of UIC and Kansas State, and center Jacob McFarland comes from Houston. Starting roles had not been announced.
Ball security is the lingering flaw
Pacific's weakness last season was giving the ball away: a 19.8% turnover rate ranked 340th. Against an overmatched opponent, that is the number to check after the opener. Jaden Clayton, who averaged 6.4 assists last season, runs much of the offense and will shape it.
Bethesda has little public information. A listing names Julio Lopez as head coach but is unconfirmed for this season, and no roster has surfaced. The visitors also have road games at Southern Utah, Utah Tech and Sacramento State ahead on their schedule. The game streams on ESPN+, with tip time still to be announced.
Where the money is on Bethesda University vs Pacific
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bethesda University: 73% of bets, 1% of the money; Pacific: 27% of bets, 99% of the money.
Key players
- TJ Wainwright (Pacific): Averaged 13.0 points last season while shooting 38.8% from three.
- Isaac Jack (Pacific): Shot 67.4% from the field last season with an offensive rating of 130.
- Jaden Clayton (Pacific): Handed out 6.4 assists per game last season.
- Justin Rochelin (Pacific): Hit 38.1% of his threes and grabbed 6.4 rebounds a game last season.
Numbers that matter
| Returning minutes | 78.2% | Share of last season's minutes back on Pacific's roster, making last season's numbers a useful guide. |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover rate rank, last season | 340th | Pacific's biggest flaw a year ago, at 19.8% of possessions. |
| Defensive rebound rank, last season | 8th | Pacific closed out possessions on the glass as well as almost anyone. |
| Elias Ralph's scoring, last season | 16.7 | The departed forward's points per game are the hole Pacific must fill. |
Bethesda University vs Pacific: quick answers
When is Bethesda University vs Pacific?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET.
Where is the money on Bethesda University vs Pacific?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bethesda University: 73% of bets, 1% of the money; Pacific: 27% of bets, 99% of the money.