Belmont Bruins vs Lipscomb Bisons prediction: Belmont's stingy start gets its first real test across the Boulevard
The rebuilt Bruins have smothered two overmatched visitors, and a cold-shooting but foul-drawing Lipscomb team now gets the first honest look at that defense.
Lipscomb Bisons covered the closing spread (Belmont Bruins -3.5). The game went over the closing total of 157.5.
| Spread | Belmont -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 157.5 |
- Expect a grinding rivalry game in which Belmont's defense tries to keep Lipscomb off the foul line while its own careless ball-handling keeps the Bisons close.
- Lipscomb's Takai Simpkins, carrying a 29.1% usage rate, against a Belmont defense holding opponents to 21.3% from three.
- Belmont is a 3.5-point road favorite with a 155.5 total, unchanged since our feed first saw it; Lipscomb is 1-2 against the spread.
A defense nobody has tested
Belmont has allowed 49.5 points per game, seventh in Division I, and opponents have managed an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of just 34.7%, 10th nationally. Those are striking numbers built on thin ground. Both games came at home, against Southern Indiana, which ranks 336th in adjusted net efficiency, and Centre College.
Lipscomb hands that defense a soft-looking first real test. The Bisons are making 25.7% of their threes, 322nd in the country. Takai Simpkins, the Oregon transfer who leads them at 18 points per game, went 0 for 6 from deep against SIU Edwardsville on Saturday. If Lipscomb's guards keep missing, Belmont's early numbers start to look less like a mirage.
Where Belmont gives games away
The Bruins' weakness is the ball. They are turning it over on 24.1% of possessions, 343rd nationally, a rate that would sink them against a team that pressures. Lipscomb doesn't. The Bisons force turnovers on only 14.7% of possessions, 308th, so Belmont may get away with its sloppiness here.
When the Bruins do hold onto it, the paint is open. Lipscomb blocks just 3.6% of opponents' two-point tries, 346th, and Belmont is hitting 61.5% inside the arc, 65th. Vincent Neugebauer, a Florida Atlantic transfer, has made 87.5% of his shots in that role.
Lipscomb's path runs to the line
If the Bisons can't shoot, they can still get fouled. Lipscomb's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 46.6%, 66th nationally, and the Bisons convert 81.3% once there, 27th. Belmont is making 62.9% of its free throws, 295th.
That gap matters in this series. Belmont won 72-71 in December 2023 and 80-79 at Lipscomb in November 2024, then took last season's meeting 75-68. A late-game parade to the line favors the home side.
New faces on both benches
Last season's Belmont numbers are a weak guide. The Bruins return only 38.4% of last season's minutes after Sam Orme left for Nebraska and Drew Scharnowski for Duke, and Evan Bradds is in his first season as head coach. Bradds went 8-0 against Lipscomb as a Belmont player.
Jack Smiley has taken over, averaging 20 points on a 30.6% usage rate. Eoin Dillon, who shot 44.6% from three last season, has started 3 for 10. Lipscomb, picked third in the ASUN preseason poll in Kevin Carroll's second season, leans on all-conference point guard Mateo Esmeraldo and forward Devyn Martin, who is shooting 73.7% and grabbing 9.3 rebounds a game.
What the number says
Belmont is favored by 3.5 across 9 books, and neither the spread nor the 155.5 total has moved since our feed first saw the game. Lipscomb is 1-2 against the spread, failing to cover as a favorite against Southeast Missouri State and SIU Edwardsville while covering as a big underdog at Iowa. Belmont's only game with a line, against Southern Indiana, went under a 155.5 total. The Bruins also arrive with five days of rest to Lipscomb's three.
Belmont Bruins vs Lipscomb Bisons line movement and odds
| Book | Bruins ML | Bisons ML | Bruins spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 | -3.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -175 | +135 | -3.5 (-105) | o157.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | -170 | +142 | -3.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | -170 | +145 | -3.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -175 | +145 | -3.5 (-115) | o157.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -164 | +136 | -3.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -170 | +135 | -3.5 (-105) | o157.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 | -3.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Belmont Bruins vs Lipscomb Bisons
On the Kalshi moneyline: Belmont Bruins: 48% of bets, 13% of the money; Lipscomb Bisons: 52% of bets, 87% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Belmont Bruins -4.5: 43% of bets, 35% of the money; Lipscomb Bisons +4.5: 57% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 71% of bets, 38% of the money; Under 157.5: 29% of bets, 62% of the money.
Key players
- Jack Smiley (Belmont): Averaging 20 points with a 30.6% usage rate and 6-of-15 shooting from three.
- Eoin Dillon (Belmont): Shot 44.6% from three last season but has opened 3 for 10.
- Vincent Neugebauer (Belmont): The Florida Atlantic transfer is shooting 87.5% from the field with 1.5 blocks per game.
- Takai Simpkins (Lipscomb): The Oregon transfer averages 18 points but owns a 37.2% effective field goal percentage.
- Devyn Martin (Lipscomb): Shooting 73.7% with 9.3 rebounds per game and a 135.1 offensive rating.
- Mateo Esmeraldo (Lipscomb): The all-conference playmaker averaged 6.7 assists last season and went 3 for 4 from three against SIU Edwardsville.
Numbers that matter
| Belmont turnover rate | 24.1% | Ranks 343rd nationally, but Lipscomb forces turnovers at only a 308th-ranked rate. |
|---|---|---|
| Lipscomb 3-point % | 25.7% | Ranks 322nd, the clearest reason Belmont's defensive numbers could hold up. |
| Lipscomb free throw rate | 46.6% | Ranks 66th and pairs with 81.3% shooting at the line, Lipscomb's best route to points. |
| Belmont returning minutes | 38.4% | So little of last season's team is back that its 2025-26 numbers say little about this one. |
| Spread | -3.5 | Belmont's line on the road has not moved since our feed first recorded it. |
Belmont Bruins vs Lipscomb Bisons: quick answers
What was the final score of Belmont Bruins vs Lipscomb Bisons?
Belmont Bruins 75, Lipscomb Bisons 88 (final). Lipscomb Bisons covered the closing spread (Belmont Bruins -3.5). The game went over the closing total of 157.5.
Who is favored in Belmont Bruins vs Lipscomb Bisons?
Belmont is favored by 3.5 points (Belmont -3.5).
What is the over/under for Belmont Bruins vs Lipscomb Bisons?
The total is 157.5 points.
When is Belmont Bruins vs Lipscomb Bisons?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Belmont Bruins vs Lipscomb Bisons?
Yes: Belmont Bruins opened -4.5 and is now -3.5, and the total moved from 159.5 to 157.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Belmont Bruins vs Lipscomb Bisons?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Belmont Bruins: 48% of bets, 13% of the money; Lipscomb Bisons: 52% of bets, 87% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Belmont Bruins -4.5: 43% of bets, 35% of the money; Lipscomb Bisons +4.5: 57% of bets, 65% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 71% of bets, 38% of the money; Under 157.5: 29% of bets, 62% of the money.