Arkansas St Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction: Pannone brings a rebuilt Arkansas State into Oats' wall of length
Ryan Pannone's homecoming pits a three-first roster full of strangers against an Alabama defense that blocked and stole everything in its opener, even without Aden Holloway.
| Spread | Alabama -25.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 177.5 |
- Alabama's pressure and rim protection should grind down a rebuilt Red Wolves offense; the margin rides on whether Arkansas State's threes fall.
- Arkansas State's perimeter-heavy attack against an Alabama defense that blocked 31.2% of Sam Houston's two-point tries, second nationally.
- The spread has held at Alabama -25.5. The total jumped from 168.25 to 175.75, though both teams went under in their openers.
Pannone comes back to Coleman
Ryan Pannone spent two seasons on Nate Oats' bench, including the 2023-24 run to the Final Four. Friday night he returns to Coleman Coliseum in his second year at Arkansas State, and it is the first time Oats has ever coached against him.
Pannone brings a roster his old boss would barely recognize. Players back from last season account for just 5.5% of last season's minutes, and the Red Wolves list 12 newcomers. That makes last season's 20-12 record a weak guide, along with the end-of-year rating that ranked them 157th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents).
The only current evidence is a 71-70 opening win over Toledo, a team rated 130th. It's one game, so treat every Red Wolves season number below as a first impression rather than an identity.
Threes into a wall of length
Against Toledo, Arkansas State let it fly: 52.9% of its shots came from deep, the 30th-highest rate in Division I. Inside the arc it shot 42.4%, which is why the threes may be its only path.
The paint looks closed. Alabama blocked 31.2% of Sam Houston's two-point attempts, second in the country, with Keitenn Bristow alone swatting four in 22 minutes. The Tide also play bigger, with a minutes-weighted average height nearly three inches taller.
The opening Sam Houston found was the three-point line. The Bearkats made 45.5% from deep, a mark that ranks 344th of 360 among defenses nationally. If Pannone's shooters find the same space, this stays closer than the number suggests. If not, the Red Wolves have little to fall back on.
Live-ball turnovers and a cold stripe
This is the biggest shift in Oats' defense. Last season Alabama ranked 362nd in forcing turnovers. In the opener it took the ball away on 28.7% of Sam Houston's possessions, and freshman Qayden Samuels, handling extra point-guard duty, had four steals.
Arkansas State protected the ball well against Toledo, turning it over on 13.2% of possessions. That figure gets tested against Alabama's length, and every live-ball miss feeds a Tide team that wants to run.
The Red Wolves also can't count on easy points. They made 43.5% of their free throws in the opener, 354th nationally. A big underdog has to cash the chances it earns, and a cold stripe can turn a respectable deficit into a blowout.
Alabama without Holloway
Aden Holloway serves the final game of his five-game suspension Friday, with his return slated for Nov. 9. Last season he averaged 16.8 points and shot 43.8% from three. Alabama also has to cover for freshman guard Anderson Diaz, who missed the opener with a left elbow injury and had no reported update for this game as of early this week. Jaxon Richardson was expected to be available on a minutes restriction as of Nov. 4.
The opener showed how Alabama fills that gap: by committee. Boise State transfer Drew Fielder scored 15 off the bench, and London Jemison matched him on 6-of-7 shooting. Nobody played more than 22 minutes, a depth chart that can keep the pressure on for 40.
A big number, a rising total
The spread hasn't moved off Alabama -25.5. That is a lot to lay with the Tide's top guard sitting, and they already failed to cover a 27.25-point number in a 96-74 win over Sam Houston.
The total is where the market has shifted, climbing from 168.25 to 175.75 even though both teams went under in their openers. The case for the over is tempo. Last season Alabama played at the fifth-fastest pace in the country and Arkansas State at the 15th. The case against is a Red Wolves offense that struggled to score inside and at the line. If Alabama's defense turns misses into fast breaks, Alabama can carry much of that total on its own.
Arkansas St Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide line movement and odds
| Book | Wolves ML | Tide ML | Wolves spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +2800 | -10000 | +26.5 (-115) | o178.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +25.5 (-108) | o177.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +2200 | -8000 | +25.5 (-105) | o178.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +3000 | -20000 | +26.5 (-110) | o178.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +3750 | -8500 | +25.5 (-105) | o178.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +26.5 (-110) | o178.5 (-112) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +25.5 (-110) | o177.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +26 (-110) | o178.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Arkansas St Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide
On the Kalshi moneyline: Arkansas St Red Wolves: 78% of bets, 11% of the money; Alabama Crimson Tide: 22% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Alabama Crimson Tide -25.5: 65% of bets, 59% of the money; Arkansas St Red Wolves +25.5: 35% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 175.5: 85% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 175.5: 15% of bets, 5% of the money.
Key players
- Drew Fielder (Alabama): Scored 15 on 5-of-9 shooting against Sam Houston after hitting 40.9% from three at Boise State last season.
- London Jemison (Alabama): Made 6 of 7 shots, including 3 of 4 threes, for 15 points in the opener.
- Amari Allen (Alabama): Posted 12 points and 4 assists in the opener with a team-high 28.3% usage rate.
- Keitenn Bristow (Alabama): Blocked 4 shots in 22 minutes against Sam Houston.
- Tameron Ferguson (Arkansas State): Scored 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting against Toledo, including 3 of 5 threes.
- Jordan Pyke (Arkansas State): Had 11 points and 9 rebounds off the bench after shooting 40.4% from three at Incarnate Word last season.
- Layne Taylor (Arkansas State): Scored 13 with 4 assists against Toledo but needed 9 three-point attempts to make 3.
Numbers that matter
| Arkansas State returning minutes | 5.5% | Almost nothing carries over from last season's 20-12 team, so its old ratings say little about this one. |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama block rate | 31.2% | Second in Division I after the opener, a problem for a Red Wolves team that struggled inside the arc. |
| Arkansas State 3-point attempt rate | 52.9% | The 30th-highest share of threes nationally, and probably its best route to staying within the number. |
| Arkansas State free throw % | 43.5% | Ranked 354th after the Toledo game, which takes away an underdog's easiest points. |
| Current total | 175.75 | Up from 168.25 when our feed first saw the game, despite both openers going under. |
Arkansas St Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide: quick answers
Who is favored in Arkansas St Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide?
Alabama is favored by 25.5 points (Alabama -25.5).
What is the over/under for Arkansas St Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide?
The total is 177.5 points.
When is Arkansas St Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Arkansas St Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide?
No: Arkansas St Red Wolves has stayed at +25.5, and the total moved from 167.5 to 178.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Arkansas St Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Arkansas St Red Wolves: 78% of bets, 11% of the money; Alabama Crimson Tide: 22% of bets, 89% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Alabama Crimson Tide -25.5: 65% of bets, 59% of the money; Arkansas St Red Wolves +25.5: 35% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 175.5: 85% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 175.5: 15% of bets, 5% of the money.