American University vs Drexel prediction: American's returning core tests Drexel's near-total rebuild in Philadelphia

Continuity against a rebuild

Opening week usually rewards the team that already knows its own sets, and this game sharpens that edge. American went 16-16 last season and enters as the Patriot League preseason favorite with nearly its entire roster back, including Collins, Jones and junior Julen Iturbe, its top three scorers from a year ago.

Drexel is starting over. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 22.6% of last season's minutes. The Dragons lost their top four scorers, led by Shane Blakeney (14.2 points per game), who transferred to South Carolina. Zach Spiker, in his 11th season, is blending transfers, a few returners and freshmen. That makes Drexel's team numbers from last season a weak guide. American's carry far more weight.

The three-point line

American lives behind the arc. Last season 46.1% of its field goal attempts were threes, 46th of 365 in volume, though it made only 33.3% of them (219th). Volume without accuracy is a fragile plan against a good perimeter defense.

Drexel had one. Opponents shot just 30.0% from three against the Dragons last season, 12th in the country, and Drexel's effective field goal percentage defense (a shooting measure in which threes count 1.5 times) ranked 24th. The catch is that Blakeney, Kevon Vanderhorst and Eli Beard, the guards who chased shooters, are all gone. Whether that defense survives the turnover is the central question of this game.

Possessions and the foul line

American's defense gambles. It forced turnovers on 19.6% of opponent possessions last season, 50th nationally. Drexel was careless with the ball, giving it away on 19.2% of its trips, 326th. New ball handlers could improve that number or make it worse, and an aggressive, veteran defense is a hard first test.

The gambling has a cost. American's opponents drew free throws at a rate that ranked 321st, so Drexel should get to the line. Converting there is another matter: the Dragons shot 66.1% from the stripe last season, 353rd. Josh Reed, the top returning scorer, made 59% of his free throws. In a game that could come down to the last few possessions, that matters.

Who Drexel has left

Reed is the likely focal point. He used 26.4% of Drexel's possessions while on the floor last season, mostly off the bench. Dillon Tingler gives the Dragons a shooter, and Tennessee transfer Amaree Abram hit 36.8% from three in limited minutes. New Orleans transfer Panagiotis Pagonis and freshman guard Adrian Petkovic round out the new faces. No starting lineup has been confirmed.

The frontcourt is thinner. Martin de LaPorterie, who made 29 starts last season, and Moses Hipps were both listed out indefinitely with a lower body injury as of Oct. 26, with no update since. Drexel dropped a physical 68-57 exhibition to Penn State that day.

A slow floor and a close history

Neither team pushes the pace. Drexel averaged 65.5 possessions per 40 minutes last season (291st), and American ranked 204th. Fewer possessions shrink the margin for error, and last season's meeting showed it: American won 75-73 at home on Dec. 3, 2025. With no line posted yet, the first number the market hangs on this one will show how much credit it gives American's continuity over Drexel's defensive track record.