Alabama State vs Texas A&M prediction: PJ Haggerty and a rebuilt Texas A&M open against Alabama State

A roster built in one offseason

Texas A&M won an NCAA Tournament game in March as a 10-seed, beating Saint Mary's. Very little of that team is still here. Players on this season's roster logged just 14.1% of last season's minutes, so last year's team numbers say more about Bucky McMillan's system than about these players.

The new center of gravity is PJ Haggerty, a third-team All-SEC pick in the preseason. At Kansas State he averaged 23.4 points and used 32.5% of his team's possessions while on the floor, a ball-dominant load. The shooting help around him comes from elsewhere too. Jordan Pope made 86 threes at Texas, and Lukas Walls hit 45.5% from deep at Radford. Tyshawn Archie arrives from McNeese after scoring 14.3 a game.

The returners are mostly role players. Zach Clemence shot 40% on 95 three-point attempts in a bench role, and Mackenzie Mgbako averaged 10.4 points in the 7 games he played. McMillan's teams have liked to let it fly: last season the Aggies ranked 42nd in 3-point attempt rate (the share of shots taken from deep) and scored 86.1 points a game.

Alabama State starts over, too

The Hornets enter this season under a cloud. In June the NCAA released findings of sports betting integrity violations involving four Alabama State players, and former coach Tony Madlock is no longer with the program and is permanently ineligible. A permanent replacement hadn't been publicly identified in the latest available information.

The team that remains finished 10-22 last season, ending with a 77-65 loss to Alcorn State in the SWAC tournament. By adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), Alabama State ended at -16.1 net, 323rd of 365. The offense was the bigger problem: an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 47.8% ranked 336th, and the Hornets also turned it over on 18.4% of possessions, 281st.

Where the Hornets can bite

Alabama State's one real weapon last season was disruption. The Hornets forced turnovers on 19.3% of opponent possessions, 62nd nationally, and ranked 59th in steal rate. They also played fast, 34th in pace at 71.2 possessions per 40 minutes.

That pressure matters most against a backcourt that has never played together. If the new Aggies guards are sloppy in their first official game, the Hornets can turn mistakes into the transition offense they need, since their half-court shooting rarely held up.

The cost of that aggression showed up at the line. Alabama State ranked 336th in opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt), allowing 42.1%. That is an inviting matchup for Haggerty, who shot 49% from the field at Kansas State while attacking downhill.

Availability still settling

Texas A&M's eligibility picture wasn't fully resolved in the most recent reporting. McMillan addressed Pope's eligibility situation at an Oct. 13 media session, but the outcome wasn't found. Bryson Warren, who arrives with a G League background, had an NCAA waiver pending as of late June, with no ruling found since.

The health news is better. Mgbako was reported fully cleared from a foot injury in July. Clemence was expected back to full action that month, though nothing newer on him has surfaced. Cade Phillips, a Tennessee transfer who had a shoulder issue, started an exhibition in the Bahamas. No new injuries were reported this week.

No current availability news on Alabama State was found.