Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat prediction: Giannis debuts in Miami against a Timberwolves frontcourt missing Randle and Reid

Giannis and the open paint

Two franchises spent the summer tearing down and rebuilding, and opening night in Miami is the first look at both blueprints. Giannis Antetokounmpo makes his Heat debut against a Minnesota front line that no longer has Julius Randle or Naz Reid. The gap in the paint is where this game leans.

Miami traded for Antetokounmpo in July, and he sat the preseason finale before tonight. He averaged 27.6 points on 62.4% shooting for Milwaukee last season. He joins a Heat offense that scored 54.7 points in the paint per game last season, 3rd of 30.

Minnesota's answer is Rudy Gobert, who anchored a defense that ranked 8th in efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) last season. The help behind him is gone. Randle averaged 21.1 points and now plays in Brooklyn. Reid went to Charlotte in the LaMelo Ball trade. Without them, Minnesota has little interior scoring of its own and fewer bodies to throw at Antetokounmpo.

The foul line is the pressure point. Minnesota ranked 25th in opponent free throw rate (free throws allowed per shot attempt) last season. Antetokounmpo shot 65.0% at the line for Milwaukee, so every whistle tests his stroke.

Edwards gets a new partner

Anthony Edwards averaged 28.8 points last season and carries this offense. Now he shares the ball with Ball, who posted 20.1 points and 7.1 assists for Charlotte last season. Donte DiVincenzo is out after right Achilles surgery, with an expected return in April, so Ball has to fit right away.

Miami's rim protection gives both guards an opening. The Heat ranked 28th in block rate last season. Expect Edwards to attack downhill. Expect Gobert to look for lobs whenever Bam Adebayo gets pulled away from the basket.

Adebayo missed two exhibitions with right groin tightness. He said he should be ready, and he is expected to play. Two-way player Vladislav Goldin is questionable with a right ankle sprain. Dru Smith's calf remains unsettled, with conflicting reports on whether he is available. Minnesota's Rocco Zikarsky is a game-time decision.

Rebounding is Finch's worry

Asked Sunday about his concerns entering the season, Chris Finch answered with one word: "rebounding." Last season's numbers back him up. Minnesota ranked 20th in defensive rebound percentage, and that was with Randle and Reid on the floor.

Miami now pairs Adebayo, who averaged 10.0 rebounds last season, with Antetokounmpo, who grabbed 9.8 a night for Milwaukee. The Heat ranked only 17th on the offensive glass last season, so crashing wasn't their habit. This frontcourt could change that, and second chances matter in a game priced this tight.

Tempo, totals and a tight spread

Miami played the fastest pace in the league last season at 106.2 possessions per game. The Heat also ranked 2nd in fast-break points. Finch has signaled that Minnesota's pace will change with Ball running the offense. That shape explains a total of 242.5, down slightly from 243.0 earlier in the week.

Miami's games went over 37 times last season and under 28 times. The Heat are 1.5-point favorites at home, and the spread hasn't moved.

Minnesota swept both meetings last January. It won 125-115 in Miami and then 122-94 at home. Neither roster looks like it did then, though. Minnesota returns 64.3% of last season's minutes, and Miami returns 61.5%, so last season's team numbers are a rough guide at best.