Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers prediction: Short-handed Warriors bring Curry, and little else, to Doncic's new Lakers

Curry plays, the bench thins

Stephen Curry tweaked his right ankle at Sunday's open practice, and Steve Kerr called it "fine." He is listed as probable, and Kerr confirmed he will play. The rest of the Warriors' injury report is the problem.

Jimmy Butler is recovering from a torn right ACL, with a possible return between January and February. Moses Moody, who shot 40.1% from three last season, is working back from a ruptured patellar tendon. Kristaps Porzingis did not travel and remains out indefinitely.

Brandin Podziemski's back is unsettled: the league report lists him out, while another report the same day had him questionable. He played all 82 games last season. Charles Bassey (knee tendinitis) is questionable. If both sit, Golden State would have just 10 active players on standard contracts for opening night, with expanded minutes for Melton, Will Richard and Payton.

Doncic's Lakers start over

LeBron James is in Philadelphia, and Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura and Marcus Smart are gone too. Players still on the roster logged only 39.9% of last season's Lakers minutes, so last season's team numbers describe a different group. Golden State returns 77.7%.

The constant is Luka Doncic, who averaged 33.5 points last season. Austin Reaves added 23.3 points a night and is cleared to play. Walker Kessler, acquired for a heavy package of draft picks, is the new starting center, though one report this week still described him as sidelined.

JJ Redick hasn't committed to a starting five, particularly at power forward. The last preseason starters were Doncic, Reaves, Kessler, Ziaire Williams and Matisse Thybulle, leaving Quentin Grimes on the bench. Collin Sexton is questionable with a right soleus strain, though he said he had a really good practice Tuesday. The preseason ended with a 121-106 loss to Denver, and the top three shared the floor for only one half.

Threes against the free throw line

Golden State took 49.7% of its shots from three last season, the highest share in the league. It made only 35.6% of them. The Lakers held opponents to 35.2% from deep, 9th in the league, so the Warriors' volume may need Curry's accuracy to pay off.

The Lakers win differently. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 32.0% ranked 1st last season, but Golden State ranked 8th at keeping opponents off the line. The Lakers also made 59.5% of their twos, best in the league, against a Warriors defense that ranked 22nd in opponent 2-point percentage. With Ayton gone and Porzingis out, the paint is where Doncic and Kessler can tilt this.

Steals as the equalizer

An undermanned team needs extra possessions, and the Warriors know how to take them. They forced turnovers on 15.5% of opponent possessions last season, 5th in the league. A Lakers group still sorting out roles is a natural target.

The flip side: Golden State ranked 26th in its own turnover rate. With Podziemski possibly out, more of the ball goes to Draymond Green and newcomer Brandon Williams, who averaged 13.0 points for Dallas last season.

What the line says

The Lakers are 6.5-point favorites, a tick up from -6, and the total has not moved off 234. The Warriors went 25-38 against the spread last season, while their games went over 36 times against 28 unders.

History cuts both ways. Golden State won last season's opener in this building, 119-109, but the Lakers took the final three meetings, including a 129-101 rout at Golden State. Los Angeles has won only two opening-night games in the last 10 years.