Sacramento Kings vs Los Angeles Clippers prediction: Kings open with their frontcourt in pieces against rebuilt Clippers

Sacramento's frontcourt runs thin

Opening night is supposed to show what a team built over the summer. For the Kings, it mostly shows who is missing. Ben Simmons had surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon and is out for the season. Maxime Raynaud dislocated his right knee and is expected to miss at least the first five or six games. Dylan Cardwell, nursing a left calf strain, is out into November.

Then there is Domantas Sabonis, listed as a game-time decision with no reason given. The Kings haven't said whether he plays, and his status is the single biggest unknown on the board for this 10:40 PM ET tip.

That leaves Precious Achiuwa as the most dependable big body available. He averaged 10.1 points and 6.7 rebounds last season, useful numbers for a reserve but a lot to ask of a starting anchor. Sacramento was already soft inside: it gave up 52.5 paint points per game last season, 23rd in the league.

Tyronn Lue will start Isaiah Jackson at center, with Brook Lopez as his primary backup. Lopez blocked 1.2 shots per game last season and spends much of his offensive time behind the arc, so he can drag whatever big Sacramento has out of the lane.

A Clippers team starting over

This is not last season's 42-40 Clippers. Kawhi Leonard, who averaged 27.9 points, is in Toronto. James Harden is in Cleveland, Ivica Zubac in Indiana and John Collins in Detroit. Players on the current roster account for 48.7% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide to this group.

The newcomer meant to replace much of that scoring isn't available yet. Brandon Ingram, who averaged 21.5 points for the Raptors last season before the trade, is out with an Achilles injury, and Lue said in mid-October he remained a ways away from returning. Bradley Beal (knee), Max Strus (foot) and Yanic Konan Niederhauser (foot) are out too. Kobe Sanders carries a game-time tag with a hip issue, though he practiced fully Oct. 17 and was expected to play at that point.

Darius Garland is the expected lead creator after steady preseason outings. Rui Hachimura, who shot 44.3% from three for the Lakers last season, should see a bigger share of the shots.

Where Sacramento's points come from

Last season's Kings barely shot threes and didn't make many when they did. Their 3-point attempt rate ranked 30th, the lowest share of shots from deep in the league, and they hit just 34.0% of them. Defense was worse: opponents posted a 57.2% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times), 29th in the league.

The two guards who can bend that profile are Zach LaVine and Malik Monk. LaVine shot 39.0% from three last season. Monk shot 39.5% from deep, but he missed all of preseason with left ankle soreness and was listed questionable as of Tuesday. If he sits, Emanuel Sharp could pick up bench minutes.

Rookie Darius Acuff Jr. has been handed a starting job, and he steps into a backcourt that lost DeMar DeRozan and Russell Westbrook over the summer. Expect Sacramento to lean hard on LaVine to create, especially if the frontcourt can't generate easy looks.

What the market is pricing

The Clippers first showed in our feed at -5 and have ticked to -5.5, with the total sitting at 228.5. The small move toward the home side came as the Kings' injury list kept growing.

The total is the harder read. Last season's Clippers ranked 29th in pace, one of the slowest teams in the league, but Lue's reshaped roster is expected to play faster. With both teams missing key scorers, the shape of this game is genuinely uncertain.

The Clippers went 37-28 against the spread last season and won three of four meetings with Sacramento. The lone loss came on their own floor, 118-109 in March, a reminder that last season's results came from two very different rosters.