Milwaukee Bucks vs Washington Wizards prediction: Davis and Ayton give Washington size the Giannis-less Bucks can't match

Washington's new size up front

Milwaukee opens its first season since trading Giannis Antetokounmpo to Miami, and its first problem is size. Washington went 17-65 a year ago, then added Anthony Davis and Deandre Ayton. It enters opening night as a 4.5-point favorite, even with No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa sitting out.

Both Wizards bigs are newcomers, so their numbers were put up elsewhere. Davis averaged 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds for Dallas last season. Ayton shot 67.1% from the field for the Lakers, nearly all of it close to the basket. Davis has been cleared to play without protective eyewear after offseason surgery for a detached retina.

That pairing goes straight at Milwaukee's weakest area. The Bucks ranked 30th in points in the paint last season, and that was with Antetokounmpo, who averaged 27.6 points before the July trade. They were also last in offensive rebound rate, the share of their own misses they recover. Kel'el Ware is the best candidate to push back. He averaged 9.0 rebounds for Miami last season and is expected to take the starting center job from Myles Turner over time.

Milwaukee lives beyond the arc

Without a post anchor, the Bucks' path runs through the three. They ranked 5th in 3-point attempt rate last season and 2nd in 3-point percentage at 38.7%. The two returning guards carried much of that. AJ Green made 41.9% of his threes, and Ryan Rollins hit 40.6% while leading the returners in scoring.

Washington is a poor team to face that kind of volume. Last season's Wizards let opponents shoot 36.8% from three, 24th in the league. They finished 30th in defensive efficiency, allowing 119.6 points per 100 possessions. A healthier frontcourt may clean up the paint, but it does little to close out on shooters stationed 25 feet from the rim. If Green and Rollins find space early, Milwaukee can stay within the number without winning inside.

Rebuilt rosters, missing pieces

Last season's team numbers only go so far here. Milwaukee returns 60.6% of last season's minutes, and Washington returns 73.6%. The Bucks rebuilt largely from Miami. Tyler Herro averaged 20.5 points for the Heat last season, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. added 15.4 off their bench. Jaquez and Kyle Kuzma are projected starters under first-year coach Taylor Jenkins. Milwaukee waived Kevin Porter Jr. on Monday, which opens minutes for young guards Brayden Burries and Kasparas Jakucionis.

Washington extended Trae Young this offseason and lost CJ McCollum to Atlanta. Dybantsa sprained his ankle in the Oct. 16 preseason finale and will not debut tonight. Brian Keefe called him day-to-day after this game. Tristan Vukcevic (hip) is out, and Jamir Watkins is out for the season after surgery on a torn ACL.

For Milwaukee, rookie Nate Ament is probable with an ankle sprain and isn't expected to play a big role. Jericho Sims' status is unsettled. He was listed Wednesday as a game-time decision for an undisclosed reason after sitting out the preseason finale.

What the market sees

Our feed first saw Washington at -4.75. The line has slipped to -4.5, a small move toward Milwaukee. The total has gone the other way, from 238.5 to 239.5.

The tempo clash explains that high total. Washington ranked 6th in pace last season, while Milwaukee ranked 24th. The Wizards also allowed 63.3 first-half points per game last season, the most in the league. Washington games went over 37 times last season, while the slower Bucks leaned under.

The series history favors the home side. Washington won three of the four meetings last season, including a 109-99 win in D.C. in January. That came against a Bucks roster that no longer exists, though. Tonight is the first real look at two teams built to play very different styles.