Chicago Bulls vs Toronto Raptors prediction: Kawhi Leonard's Toronto homecoming opens against a rebuilt, thin Bulls roster

Kawhi comes back to Toronto

The last time Kawhi Leonard wore a Raptors uniform, it was Game 6 of the 2019 Finals. He returns Wednesday on a two-year, $115 million extension through 2028-29, and he is still producing at a star's level: 27.9 points a game for the Clippers last season, on 38.7% from three.

He lands on a team that already had a base. Toronto went 46-36 last season, finished fifth in the East and pushed Cleveland to seven games in the first round. The projected starting five of Leonard, Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl is healthy. Load management is expected for Leonard over the season, though no specific restriction has been reported for the opener. The Raptors did lose Brandon Ingram, who scored 21.5 points a game for them last season and is now with the Clippers, so Leonard is as much a replacement as an addition. Toronto's only absence is backup center Nate Bittle (foot), who is out.

A Bulls team starting over

Chicago opens a new era under first-year coach Tiago Splitter, who replaces Billy Donovan. The roster turned over hard: players back from last season's 31-51 team played just 57.2% of its minutes. Nikola Vucevic, Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu and Kevin Huerter are all gone, so last season's team numbers are a loose guide.

The biggest newcomer is Norman Powell, who averaged 21.7 points for Miami last season. Josh Giddey remains the engine after a season of 9.1 assists a game, and Matas Buzelis started all 77 of his appearances. The other headline arrival is not available: Nic Claxton (hamstring) will be re-evaluated in two weeks, and Jalen Smith is expected to start at center. Jordan Hawkins (illness) is listed out and Dailyn Swain (illness) doubtful, with both expected to stay in Chicago. Isaac Okoro, Zach Collins, Leonard Miller and Tobe Awaka are all probable. Chicago also opens with three games in four days.

Turnovers and the open floor

This is where Toronto's edge looks sharpest. The Raptors forced turnovers on 15.8% of opponent possessions last season, 4th in the league, and led the NBA with 18.8 fast-break points a game. Chicago gave the ball away at a 14.4% rate, 20th, and its guard rotation is now built around players still learning each other.

The other side of that exchange favors Toronto too. The Bulls forced turnovers at just a 12.1% rate last season, 29th of 30, so they rarely manufacture easy possessions. Last season Chicago allowed 54.0 points in the paint a game, 27th, while Toronto scored 53.2 there, 4th.

Pace pulls against the total

The total sits at 236.5, which assumes Chicago gets its preferred game. The Bulls played at the 3rd-fastest pace last season, about 105.2 possessions a game, while Toronto sat 21st at 101.6. Opening night with an overhauled roster could cut either way, sloppy and fast or cautious and halfcourt.

Both teams leaned under last season. Toronto's games went under 41 times against 24 overs, and Chicago's went under 38 times against 28 overs. The Raptors' defense, 6th in efficiency at 110.1 points allowed per 100 possessions, is a big reason why. Chicago's sat 22nd at 115.5.

What the market says

Toronto is favored by 9.5, unchanged since our feed first recorded the line, with the Raptors around -440 on the moneyline and the Bulls +335. Last season the Raptors were close to even against the spread at 33-32, while Chicago went 30-36. The season series was lopsided: Toronto won 123-107 at home, then won twice in Chicago, the last of them 139-109. Those games featured different rosters, but the gap in structure, a top-10 defense against a bottom-10 one, carries over.

• Whether Leonard plays a full workload or a managed one
• Jalen Smith and Chicago's bigs holding up in the paint without Claxton
• Toronto's turnovers turning into transition points early