Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers prediction: Ja Morant's Blazers debut runs into Phoenix's turnover-hungry defense

Portland's ball security problem

The Blazers open a season of new faces tonight. Ja Morant debuts, Damian Lillard is back from his Achilles injury, and Micah Nori coaches his first NBA game after replacing Tiago Splitter, who left for Chicago. The biggest question is whether Portland can hang on to the ball.

Last season the Blazers turned it over on 16.6% of their possessions, 30th of 30. That is a bad habit to carry into a game against Phoenix, which forced turnovers on 16.2% of opponent possessions, 3rd in the league. The Suns' steal rate of 9.5% also ranked 3rd, so plenty of those giveaways turned into live-ball chances.

Morant is supposed to help organize things. He averaged 8.1 assists in only 20 games for Memphis last season, so his rhythm with a new team is an open question. Nori hinted at a starting five of Morant, Lillard, Toumani Camara, Avdija and Donovan Clingan. Opening night is not the easiest setting for a new backcourt to learn each other's tendencies.

Portland wins it back on the glass

The Blazers' answer to their own turnovers is the offensive boards. Portland grabbed 31.3% of its own misses last season, 2nd in the league. Phoenix finished 27th in defensive rebound rate at 71.9%, so the Suns struggled to end possessions.

Clingan is the engine. The 7-foot-2 center averaged 11.6 rebounds last season. Phoenix's frontcourt is thin: Mark Williams is out after left shoulder surgery and isn't expected back until February. Oso Ighodaro, who signed an extension Sunday, and Khaman Maluach are competing for the starting center job, and the Suns haven't named a winner.

If Phoenix forces turnovers and Portland wins second chances, possession math may not settle this one. Shotmaking will.

Threes against a stingy perimeter

Portland loves the three more than it makes it. The Blazers ranked 3rd in 3-point attempt rate last season but shot just 34.3% from deep, 28th. Phoenix held opponents to 34.7% from three last season, 2nd in the league.

Phoenix shoots plenty of threes too and has a real shooter in Collin Gillespie, who hit 40.1% on 578 attempts last season. The Suns badly need that, because they managed only 43.1 paint points per game, 29th of 30. Luke Kennard would add more spacing after shooting 47.8% from three for Atlanta last season. He is questionable with a left knee issue after leaving an Oct. 15 preseason game early.

Who actually suits up

Avdija is Portland's best player and its biggest uncertainty. He averaged 24.2 points last season and is listed as questionable with right ankle soreness. His status hadn't been settled as of Oct. 20, and if he sits, Jrue Holiday could slide to forward. Holiday has also been tagged as a game-time decision with a hand issue in one place, though he is not on the league injury report. Shaedon Sharpe, who averaged 20.8 points last season, is out after meniscus surgery. Micah Potter is questionable with an illness, and Branden Carlson and Chris Youngblood are out.

Phoenix's lineup looks steadier. Devin Booker averaged 26.1 points last season and Dillon Brooks added 20.2. Miles Bridges debuts after averaging 17.1 points for Charlotte, acquired in a deal that sent Grayson Allen and Royce O'Neale the other way. The Suns return 74.7% of last season's minutes, more than Portland's 69.8%, so their team numbers from last season are the more reliable guide.

What the market sees

Portland sits at -2.5, down from -3.5 when our feed first recorded the game, so the move has gone toward Phoenix. The total has dipped from 232.5 to 231.5.

Last season's meetings back the Suns' supporters. Phoenix won both games at the Moda Center, 127-110 and 130-125, before Portland won 92-77 in Phoenix. The tempos clash: Portland played at 104.0 possessions per game last season (8th), while Phoenix played at 100.5 (23rd). Suns games went under 36 times in 65 lined games last season.

What to watch: - Portland's turnover count in the first quarter, with a new backcourt facing Phoenix's pressure - Clingan's offensive rebounds against an unsettled Suns center spot - Whether Avdija and Kennard play, and how many minutes they get