Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction: Haliburton returns, and the market already trusts Indiana in New Orleans

Haliburton changes the math

The Pacers went 19-63 last season without Tyrese Haliburton, and the market has decided that record no longer describes them. Haliburton is cleared to play after the Achilles injury that cost him all of 2025-26, and Indiana opens as a road favorite against a Pelicans team that finished 26-56. He did tweak his right ankle in preseason, but Rick Carlisle said an MRI came back clear.

Indiana is laying 3.5 points at Smoothie King Center. Last season's Pacers ranked 28th of 30 in offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions), a number built without their best playmaker. That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide for this group. Haliburton, plus newcomers Kelly Oubre Jr. and Zubac in the starting lineup, gives Indiana a different shape than the team that ended last spring.

Zion against a soft middle

This is where New Orleans can flip the script. The Pelicans scored 57.7 points in the paint per game last season, 2nd in the league. Indiana allowed 55.7 per game there, 29th of 30.

Williamson is the engine. He averaged 21.0 points on 60.0% shooting last season, and there is no injury listed for him heading into a year in which he carries the pressure of leading New Orleans back toward the playoffs. Zubac is Indiana's answer; he averaged 10.6 rebounds for the Clippers last season and steps straight into the starting five. Behind him, the job is unsettled: Carlisle told Jay Huff and Larry Nance Jr. to approach backup center as a shared role.

The glass tilts toward New Orleans

The Pelicans were a strange rebounding team last season. They grabbed 27.0% of their own misses, 8th in the league, but secured only 71.4% of opponents' misses, 28th.

Indiana couldn't exploit that kind of weakness last season, ranking 29th in offensive rebound rate. Zubac is the swing piece. If he gives Indiana extra possessions on the offensive end while keeping Williamson and Derik Queen off the glass, Indiana's spread looks reasonable. If not, New Orleans gets the second chances that keep an underdog close.

A short Pacers bench, a homecoming

Indiana is down three rotation pieces. Aaron Nesmith (left hamstring strain) and T.J. McConnell (right hamstring strain) are both out, and Johnny Furphy is out with a torn right ACL. Oubre is expected to start in Nesmith's place after averaging 14.1 points for the 76ers last season. Andrew Nembhard and Quenton Jackson are expected to split the backup point guard minutes.

Two more Pacers bear watching. Jarace Walker missed the final two preseason games but is not on the injury report. Nance has been tagged as a game-time decision with a hamstring issue, and the Pacers haven't cleared that up.

New Orleans listed no injuries as of Wednesday. Dejounte Murray missed the final three preseason games with a toe problem but is expected to play. Jamahl Mosley coaches his first game for the Pelicans, and Bennedict Mathurin faces the team he played for last season, when he averaged 17.6 points for Indiana.

Pace and the 239.5 total

Both teams played fast last season, sitting 9th and 10th in pace. That supports a high total, as do two defenses that ranked in the bottom third in efficiency.

The three-point line is the other lever. New Orleans allowed opponents to take 44.2% of their shots from deep last season, 5th most in the league. Trey Murphy III shot 37.9% from three last season and gives the Pelicans a shooter to answer back. Last season's two meetings split: New Orleans won 128-109 at home, and Indiana won 127-119 at home. Only the second cleared the current total of 239.5.