Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets prediction: Rockets' offensive glass tests a Mavericks frontcourt missing Lively and Aldama

Second chances in the paint

One team went 52-30 last season and returns nearly everyone. The other went 26-56 and opens with a new coach and a depleted front line. The place where that gap could show up most is under the rim.

Houston was the best offensive rebounding team in the league last season, grabbing 34.8% of its own misses (1st of 30). Tonight that edge runs into a Dallas frontcourt short on size. Dereck Lively II (right foot surgery) and Santi Aldama (knee) are both ruled out, leaving the middle to Daniel Gafford, Moussa Cisse and Morez Johnson Jr., the ninth overall pick in June.

Dallas was ordinary on the defensive glass last season, ranking 16th in defensive rebound rate. Worse, the Mavericks allowed 56.2 points in the paint per game, last in the league. Sengun, who averaged 20.4 points last season, gets to work against a thinner rotation than the one he saw in four meetings.

Houston's one weakness was ball security: its turnover rate ranked 28th last season. Dallas is poorly built to cash that in, ranking 25th in forcing turnovers.

Durant and Flagg carry the load

Kevin Durant averaged 26.0 points last season and shot 41.3% from three. He is the cleanest shot-maker on the floor. Amen Thompson, fresh off a five-year, $208 million deal, adds 18.3 points a night of downhill pressure. Fred VanVleet is back from his ACL injury and expected to resume as the starting point guard, and Ime Udoka plans a 10-deep rotation early while easing VanVleet and Steven Adams into heavy workloads. Houston returns 84.1% of last season's minutes, so its numbers from a year ago still describe this team.

Dallas is a different story. The Mavericks return only 56.1% of last season's minutes, Dusty May replaces Jason Kidd, and last season's team numbers are a weak guide. Cooper Flagg is the engine: 21.0 points as a rookie, but only 29.5% from three. Max Christie, a 40.4% shooter from deep last season, is cleared; "Max practiced today, full go," May said. Kyrie Irving is a projected starter. The last listing showing him questionable with a knee issue dates to Oct. 4, and he played Oct. 11 after sitting out a game for rest.

A tempo tug-of-war

Dallas wanted to run last season, ranking 4th in pace at 105.1 possessions per game. Houston ranked 26th at 100.1. The Rockets usually win that fight at home by defending the half court; they allowed 53.9 first-half points per game last season, 3rd fewest.

That style showed up in the totals. Houston games went under 39 times and over 29 last season. The total sits at 230.5, barely moved since our feed first saw it, which asks both teams to score more than Houston's games usually allowed.

Who is in and who is out

Dallas has also ruled out Caleb Martin (right thumb sprain) and Tarik Biberovic (right heel). Jett Howard is questionable with a calf issue and could go either way before tip. Marcus Sasser was a game-time decision with a hip issue as of Oct. 14, with no newer word.

For Houston, Adams (calf) and Julian Phillips (illness) are questionable. Durant's last listing, Oct. 15, was a game-time decision unrelated to injury.

What the line is saying

Houston is a 9-point favorite, up from -8.5 when our feed first recorded the game. That's a big number for a team that covered just 27 of 68 lined games last season. Dallas went 30-34 against the spread.

The four meetings last season split 2-2, and each team won both of its home games. The teams also split two preseason games in Macao. Houston closed its preseason by routing Oklahoma City on Oct. 15, while Dallas lost its last tune-up to Atlanta.