Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies prediction: Memphis shooters face a Pacers team running out of bodies
The league's most accurate 3-point team gets a short-handed Indiana defense that has struggled to guard the arc, and the Pacers' lineup may not be settled until tipoff.
| Spread | Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 229 |
- Memphis should control the game from deep while a depleted Indiana tries to keep it close by scoring inside and grinding possessions.
- Memphis 3-point shooting against an Indiana defense allowing 37.4% from three, 26th in the league.
- Memphis is favored by 7.5 with a 229 total, unchanged since our feed first saw the game; Indiana covered as a 10.5-point underdog Monday with six players.
The arc decides it
Memphis was the league's last unbeaten team until Monday, when New Orleans won 135-134 in overtime at FedExForum. Indiana arrives on a five-game losing streak, and it finished its last game with six available players. One team is stocked with shooters. The other is waiting on a medical update.
The matchup that matters most is the Grizzlies' shooting against Indiana's perimeter defense. Memphis makes 42.2% of its threes, 1st of 30. Indiana's opponents hit 37.4% from deep, 26th. That gap feeds Memphis's effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times) of 56.7%, 3rd in the league.
The shooters are real. Cam Spencer made 44.9% of his threes last season, and Ty Jerome just scored 40 against the Pelicans. A Pacers team missing guards will be stretched chasing them around screens.
Who Indiana actually has
The Pacers' availability is the biggest unknown on the board. Tyrese Haliburton (left hamstring) is out and was ruled out for at least two weeks as of Oct. 28. T.J. McConnell (hamstring) is out and week-to-week, Ben Sheppard is out for months after meniscus surgery, and Johnny Furphy remains out after knee surgery.
Ivica Zubac (left ankle) is questionable after missing five straight games. If he sits, Jay Huff starts at center again; he had 22 points and 8 rebounds in 40 minutes Monday. Kelly Oubre Jr. (knee) and Obi Toppin (back) are also questionable.
Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith all sat Monday, Siakam for rest on the back half of a back-to-back. Reports disagree on whether any of the three appear on Wednesday's injury report, so their status is unsettled until the official list. Their return would change this game: Siakam averages 21.4 points and Nembhard 18.5.
Memphis is cleaner. Scotty Pippen Jr. is out with a lumbar disc herniation, and Quinten Post (right ankle) is questionable.
Indiana's path runs inside
If the Pacers keep this close, they will do it near the rim. Indiana makes 56.9% of its 2-pointers, 7th in the league, while Memphis converts just 51.8% inside the arc, 24th. The Pacers also allow opponents only 51.1% on twos, 4th.
Zach Edey complicates that plan. The former Purdue center gives Memphis size that a thin Indiana frontcourt, possibly without Zubac, will struggle to match. The Pacers also don't win second chances: their offensive rebound rate (share of their own misses they recover) is 22.4%, 28th of 30.
The Pacers have started slowly all season. They score 54.2 first-half points per game, 26th, while Memphis scores 62.1 before halftime, 3rd. Monday's comeback, when Indiana outscored Atlanta 48-40 after the break, showed that the depleted group can compete late.
This is not last year's Memphis
Memphis went 25-57 last season, but those numbers describe a different roster. Only 52.6% of last season's minutes return, with Jaren Jackson Jr. now in Utah. Jerami Grant averaged 18.6 points for Portland last season before joining the Grizzlies, and coach Tuomas Iisalo calls his group the league's fourth-youngest.
Memphis still beat Indiana twice last season, 128-103 at home and 125-106 in Indianapolis.
Where the number sits
Memphis is a 7.5-point favorite, and the total is 229. Neither has moved since our feed first saw the game Wednesday morning. The moneyline has Memphis at -265.
The Grizzlies are 6-1 against the spread. Indiana is 4-4 ATS, with 3 overs and 5 unders. The Pacers' availability is the variable that matters most for the spread: a lineup with Siakam and Nembhard is a different opponent from Monday's six-man group.
- Zubac's status: whether Huff has to handle Edey alone.
- Siakam and Nembhard: whether either plays changes Indiana's ceiling.
- Memphis threes early: a fast start would play into Indiana's first-half struggles.
Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies line movement and odds
| Book | Pacers ML | Grizzlies ML | Pacers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +200 | -250 | +6.5 (-110) | o229.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +195 | -245 | +6.5 (-110) | o230.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +205 | -249 | +6.5 (-110) | o228.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +200 | -240 | +6.5 (-110) | o229.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +200 | -245 | +6.5 (-110) | o229 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +200 | -245 | +6.5 (-114) | o229.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +200 | -250 | +6.5 (-110) | o229.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +205 | -250 | +6.5 (-110) | o229 (-110) |
Where the money is on Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies
On the Kalshi moneyline: Indiana Pacers: 36% of bets, 17% of the money; Memphis Grizzlies: 64% of bets, 83% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Memphis Grizzlies -6.5: 88% of bets, 68% of the money; Indiana Pacers +6.5: 13% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 230.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Under 230.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Indiana Pacers (1 wallet, $580) vs Memphis Grizzlies (1 wallet, $339). Largest: Tys0n8686 $580 on Indiana Pacers, Favorite-Break $339 on Memphis Grizzlies.
Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies stats (this season)
| Stat | Indiana Pacers | Memphis Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-6 | 6-1 |
| Offensive efficiency | 108.2 (18th of 30) | 118.0 (3rd of 30) |
| Defensive efficiency | 111.9 (20th of 30) | 105.7 (7th of 30) |
| Net efficiency | -3.8 (20th of 30) | 12.3 (2nd of 30) |
| Pace | 103.3 (13th of 30) | 104.2 (10th of 30) |
| Effective FG% | 53.6% (15th of 30) | 56.7% (3rd of 30) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 53.3% (14th of 30) | 50.1% (5th of 30) |
| Turnover rate | 15.2% (14th of 30) | 15.4% (15th of 30) |
| Offensive rebound % | 22.4% (28th of 30) | 29.8% (9th of 30) |
| 3-point % | 32.9% (23rd of 30) | 42.2% (1st of 30) |
| Points in the paint per game | 50.8 (7th of 30) | 48.3 (14th of 30) |
Trends for this game
Indiana Pacers
- Lost the last meeting by 15+: all teams 3412-3365 ATS (50.3%); IND 115-84. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 16).
- First 10 games of the season: all teams 2907-2913 ATS (49.9%); IND 105-92. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 3).
- Road underdogs: all teams 7706-7635 ATS (50.2%); IND 266-270. No edge at -110.
- Third game in four nights: all teams 6551-6603 ATS (49.8%); IND 228-220. No edge at -110.
- On a 4+ game losing streak: all teams 2119-2118 ATS (50.0%); IND 62-65. No edge at -110.
Memphis Grizzlies
- First 10 games of the season: all teams 2907-2913 ATS (49.9%); MEM 92-103. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2, betting against).
- Home favorites: all teams 7635-7706 ATS (49.8%); MEM 247-233. No edge at -110.
- Off an upset loss: all teams 3719-3530 ATS (51.3%); MEM 115-108. No edge at -110.
- After an overtime game: all teams 1281-1385 ATS (48.0%). No edge at -110.
Key players
- Pascal Siakam (Indiana Pacers): Averages 21.4 points and 7.4 rebounds this season but shoots 28.6% from three.
- Andrew Nembhard (Indiana Pacers): Averages 18.5 points and 7.3 assists this season while making 41.7% of his threes.
- Jay Huff (Indiana Pacers): Owns a 59.5% effective field goal percentage this season and posted 22 points Monday.
- Cam Spencer (Memphis Grizzlies): Made 44.9% of his threes and averaged 5.6 assists for Memphis last season.
- Jerami Grant (Memphis Grizzlies): Averaged 18.6 points for Portland last season before arriving in Memphis.
- Jaylen Wells (Memphis Grizzlies): Started all 69 of his games for Memphis last season, averaging 12.5 points, and scored 16 on Monday.
Numbers that matter
| Memphis 3-point % | 42.2% | Best in the league, against an Indiana defense that ranks near the bottom at guarding the arc. |
|---|---|---|
| Indiana opponent 3-point % | 37.4% | Ranks 26th of 30, the weak point Memphis's shooters will attack. |
| Indiana 2-point % | 56.9% | Ranks 7th and gives the Pacers their best route to keeping this close. |
| Spread | -7.5 | Memphis has been favored by this number since our feed first saw the game. |
| Memphis returning minutes | 52.6% | Roughly half of last season's 25-57 team is back, so last season's numbers say little about this one. |
Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies: quick answers
Who is favored in Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Memphis Grizzlies is favored by 7.5 points (Memphis Grizzlies -7.5).
What is the over/under for Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies?
The total is 229 points.
When is Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 8:10 PM ET.
Where is Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies played?
FedExForum, Memphis.
Has the line moved for Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Yes: Indiana Pacers opened +5.5 and is now +6.5, and the total moved from 230.5 to 229.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Indiana Pacers: 36% of bets, 17% of the money; Memphis Grizzlies: 64% of bets, 83% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Memphis Grizzlies -6.5: 88% of bets, 68% of the money; Indiana Pacers +6.5: 13% of bets, 32% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 230.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Under 230.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Indiana Pacers (1 wallet, $580) vs Memphis Grizzlies (1 wallet, $339). Largest: Tys0n8686 $580 on Indiana Pacers, Favorite-Break $339 on Memphis Grizzlies. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.