Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks prediction: Bulls keep firing threes, and the Knicks keep inviting them
Chicago takes threes at the league's fifth-highest rate and makes them worse than anyone, against a New York defense that concedes that shot and walls off the paint.
| Spread | New York Knicks -11.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 234 |
- Expect a grind on New York's terms: the Knicks rank 29th in pace and allow 105.1 points per game, third-fewest in the league.
- Chicago's perimeter shooters against a Knicks defense that allows the 4th-highest opponent 3-point attempt rate. Volume isn't the issue. Accuracy is.
- Knicks -11.5, down from -12.5 when our feed first saw it; New York is 1-6 against the spread this season.
Chicago's three-point problem
The Bulls have built their offense around the three. They take 47.2% of their shots from deep, 5th-most in the league. They make 27.9% of them, dead last. That combination explains most of a 1-6 start and an effective field goal percentage (which counts threes 1.5 times) of 48.2%, 29th of 30.
The Knicks won't take that shot away. Opponents take 45.9% of their attempts from three against New York, the 4th-highest rate, and hit 35.3%, a middling 15th. Mike Brown's defense is happy to trade threes for protecting the rim, and against this Chicago group that trade has been a good one.
The Bulls' shooting regression has an obvious source. Ayo Dosunmu, who hit 43.9% from three last season, is now in Minnesota. Norman Powell is the bet to fix it: he made 38.0% of his threes for Miami last season. Matas Buzelis and Josh Giddey have started slowly under first-year coach Tiago Splitter, and rookie Caleb Wilson has carried the scoring load.
Nothing easy at the rim
If the threes don't fall, Chicago has nowhere else to go. New York allows 37.4 points in the paint per game, 2nd-fewest in the league, and its defensive rebound rate of 77.8% (the share of opponent misses it collects) ranks 1st. The Bulls are a respectable 10th on the offensive glass, but second chances will be scarce.
The one lever Chicago does pull is the foul line. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 38.0% leads the league. The Knicks keep opponents off the line reasonably well, 10th in that category, and the Bulls shoot just 74.6% when they get there, 24th.
The reverse matchup flatters New York's weakest area. The Knicks shoot 46.9% on twos, 30th, but Chicago gives up 53.4 paint points per game, 26th. Andre Drummond, brought in to replace Mitchell Robinson, should find room inside.
Fastest against slowest
Chicago plays at the league's fastest pace, 109.0 possessions per game. New York ranks 29th at 99.8. The Bulls' speed has mostly hurt them: they allow 128.9 points per game, worst in the league, and give up the most first-half points.
The Oct. 28 meeting showed both sides of it. Chicago led by 19 at home before the Knicks came back to win 133-127, a game that went over a closing total of 233.5. That loss started a skid for the Bulls, who have since dropped at Boston and at Philadelphia.
Who's available
Josh Hart is questionable with right ankle soreness, as of Nov. 3's report. He went straight to the locker room after fouling out of Monday's win over Brooklyn, and his status may not be settled until warmups. If he sits, Landry Shamet or Miles McBride could start. Jose Alvarado returned Monday after missing four games, and Brown has said he is managing minutes after last season's title run.
For Chicago, Nic Claxton (hamstring) missed his Bulls debut Monday and is listed questionable for Wednesday; his status is unsettled. Jalen Smith is probable with a left finger sprain. Patrick Williams is healthy but remains the only Bull who hasn't played this season.
Where the line sits
The Knicks were -12.5 when our feed first saw the game and have drifted to -11.5, with the total nudging from 233.5 to 234.0. The market keeps pricing New York as last season's champion, and the results haven't cooperated: the Knicks are 1-6 against the spread, including a non-cover as 14.5-point favorites in Monday's 103-90 win over Brooklyn.
Their games have also stayed low, 1-6 to the over. Chicago has gone under in five of seven. The one Knicks over this season came against these Bulls.
Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks line movement and odds
| Book | Bulls ML | Knicks ML | Bulls spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +450 | -625 | +12.5 (-118) | o234.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +450 | -670 | +12.5 (-112) | o232.5 (-134) |
| DraftKings | +443 | -597 | +11.5 (-105) | o233.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +450 | -700 | +11.5 (-105) | o234.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +430 | -600 | +11.5 (-105) | o234 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +450 | -600 | +12.5 (-110) | o234.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +450 | -650 | +11.5 (+100) | o233.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +430 | -600 | +11.5 (-105) | o234 (-110) |
Where the money is on Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Chicago Bulls: 41% of bets, 26% of the money; New York Knicks: 59% of bets, 74% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Knicks -12.5: 55% of bets, 22% of the money; Chicago Bulls +12.5: 45% of bets, 78% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 232.5: 69% of bets, 97% of the money; Under 232.5: 31% of bets, 3% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: New York Knicks (2 wallets, $3,346). Largest: Tys0n8686 $3,240 on New York Knicks, Melodic-Entertainment-Cacao $106 on New York Knicks.
Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks stats (this season)
| Stat | Chicago Bulls | New York Knicks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-6 | 3-4 |
| Offensive efficiency | 103.2 (27th of 30) | 106.7 (22nd of 30) |
| Defensive efficiency | 118.2 (28th of 30) | 105.4 (5th of 30) |
| Net efficiency | -14.9 (30th of 30) | 1.3 (15th of 30) |
| Pace | 109.0 (1st of 30) | 99.8 (29th of 30) |
| Effective FG% | 48.2% (29th of 30) | 49.9% (26th of 30) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 56.4% (26th of 30) | 52.3% (11th of 30) |
| Turnover rate | 15.9% (19th of 30) | 15.6% (17th of 30) |
| Offensive rebound % | 29.0% (10th of 30) | 30.2% (7th of 30) |
| 3-point % | 27.9% (30th of 30) | 35.7% (10th of 30) |
| Points in the paint per game | 46.0 (19th of 30) | 38.9 (29th of 30) |
Trends for this game
Chicago Bulls
- On a 4+ game losing streak: all teams 2119-2118 ATS (50.0%); CHI 60-45. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 6).
- Underdogs of 10+: all teams 2124-2034 ATS (51.1%); CHI 57-63. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2, betting against).
- Road underdogs: all teams 7706-7635 ATS (50.2%); CHI 279-262. No edge at -110.
- Off a 15+ point loss: all teams 3494-3324 ATS (51.2%); CHI 121-126. No edge at -110.
- First 10 games of the season: all teams 2907-2913 ATS (49.9%); CHI 95-98. No edge at -110.
New York Knicks
- First 10 games of the season: all teams 2907-2913 ATS (49.9%); NY 92-102. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2, betting against).
- Home favorites: all teams 7635-7706 ATS (49.8%); NY 224-204. No edge at -110.
- Home favorites of 10+: all teams 1643-1745 ATS (48.5%); NY 35-32. No edge at -110.
Key players
- Norman Powell (Chicago Bulls): Averaged 21.7 points and shot 38.0% from three for the Miami Heat last season.
- Matas Buzelis (Chicago Bulls): Scored 16.3 points per game last season, shooting 34.9% on 495 three-point attempts.
- Josh Giddey (Chicago Bulls): Averaged 9.1 assists last season but has started slowly under Splitter.
- Nic Claxton (Chicago Bulls): Averaged 11.7 points on 57.1% shooting for the Brooklyn Nets last season.
- Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks): Led the Knicks with 26.0 points per game last season.
- Karl-Anthony Towns (New York Knicks): Averaged 20.1 points and 11.9 rebounds last season.
- OG Anunoby (New York Knicks): Shot 38.6% from three last season while averaging 1.6 steals.
- Josh Hart (New York Knicks): Hit 41.3% of his threes and grabbed 7.4 rebounds per game last season.
Numbers that matter
| Bulls 3-point % | 27.9% | Last in the league, on the 5th-highest attempt rate. |
|---|---|---|
| Knicks opponent 3PA rate | 45.9% | New York concedes threes at the 4th-highest rate, the shot Chicago keeps missing. |
| Knicks opponent paint points | 37.4 | 2nd-fewest in the league, closing off the Bulls' fallback option. |
| Bulls free throw rate | 38.0% | Best in the league and Chicago's most reliable source of offense. |
| Current spread | -11.5 | Knicks favored, down from -12.5, while New York sits 1-6 against the spread. |
Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks: quick answers
Who is favored in Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks?
New York Knicks is favored by 11.5 points (New York Knicks -11.5).
What is the over/under for Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks?
The total is 234 points.
When is Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 7:40 PM ET.
Where is Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks played?
Madison Square Garden, New York.
Has the line moved for Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks?
Yes: Chicago Bulls opened +12.5 and is now +11.5, and the total moved from 232.5 to 234.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Chicago Bulls: 41% of bets, 26% of the money; New York Knicks: 59% of bets, 74% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Knicks -12.5: 55% of bets, 22% of the money; Chicago Bulls +12.5: 45% of bets, 78% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 232.5: 69% of bets, 97% of the money; Under 232.5: 31% of bets, 3% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: New York Knicks (2 wallets, $3,346). Largest: Tys0n8686 $3,240 on New York Knicks, Melodic-Entertainment-Cacao $106 on New York Knicks. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.