NBA Home underdogs: Miami Heat: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Teams getting points at home. 173 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 80-88-5 (47.6%)
Straight up: 63-110 (36.4%)
Over/under: 82-90-1 (47.7% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.8 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns 0.0%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2018: 45-51 (46.9%); 2019-2027: 35-37 (48.6%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 8-4 | 66.7% |
| 2025 | 9-7 | 56.3% |
| 2024 | 1-9 | 10.0% |
| 2023 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 3-6 | 33.3% |
| 2020 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2019 | 6-4-1 | 60.0% |
| 2018 | 3-7-2 | 30.0% |
| 2017 | 8-8 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 5-2 | 71.4% |
| 2015 | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2011 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 6-7 | 46.2% |
| 2008 | 11-15-1 | 42.3% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA home underdogs for the Miami Heat?
80-88-5 against the spread (47.6%) in 173 team-games since 2007-08, 63-110 straight up and 82-90-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns 0.0%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2018: 45-51 (46.9%); 2019-2027: 35-37 (48.6%).