NBA Home underdogs: Denver Nuggets: ATS Record Since 2007-08
Teams getting points at home. 136 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 66-68-2 (49.3%)
Straight up: 56-80 (41.2%)
Over/under: 74-57-5 (56.5% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.74 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -3.1%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 43-44 (49.4%); 2018-2026: 23-24 (48.9%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2024 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2023 | 4-0 | 100.0% |
| 2022 | 3-6 | 33.3% |
| 2021 | 2-5 | 28.6% |
| 2020 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2019 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2018 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2017 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 11-13-1 | 45.8% |
| 2015 | 6-12 | 33.3% |
| 2014 | 11-7 | 61.1% |
| 2013 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2012 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2011 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2010 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2009 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2008 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA home underdogs for the Denver Nuggets?
66-68-2 against the spread (49.3%) in 136 team-games since 2007-08, 56-80 straight up and 74-57-5 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -3.1%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 43-44 (49.4%); 2018-2026: 23-24 (48.9%).