Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction: Weary Golden Knights bring a fragile penalty kill to Pittsburgh
Vegas plays its second game in two nights with a kill ranked 26th, while a banged-up Penguins team that has been strong at home waits on Evgeni Malkin.
| Line | Vegas Golden Knights -111 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Vegas has the stars, but it is on a back-to-back, sliding, and taking on a Penguins team that is 4-1-1 at home.
- Pittsburgh's power play against a Vegas kill ranked 26th; the Golden Knights have allowed a power-play goal in seven of their last eight games.
- The market has Vegas a slim -111 favorite with Pittsburgh at -108, and the total of 6.5 hasn't moved since our feed first saw it.
A slide, then a red-eye
Vegas opened the season 8-2 and has lost five of its last six since. The latest came Monday night in Boston, a 3-2 shootout loss that ended when David Pastrnak beat Carter Hart. Trevor Connelly had tied that game early in the third period, 7:23 in. Now the Golden Knights play again the next night, in Pittsburgh, against a team that has had three days of rest.
The Penguins are a different team at home. They are 4-1-1 at PPG Paints Arena and 1-6-1 everywhere else. That split, plus the schedule, explains why the betting market sees this as close to even despite the gap in the standings.
The penalty kill problem
The clearest edge in this game sits on special teams, and it doesn't favor Vegas. The Golden Knights kill only 70.0% of penalties (the share of opponent power plays that end without a goal), 26th of 32. Pittsburgh's power play converts 21.1% of its chances, 16th, which is ordinary but enough to punish a kill this shaky.
The other side tilts the opposite way. Vegas scores on 27.7% of its power plays, 7th in the league, but Pittsburgh kills 85.7%, 6th. Neither team gives the other many looks: both rank 2nd in times shorthanded at 2.5 per game. With chances scarce, one conversion could swing it.
Goaltending is unsettled on both ends
Hart started Monday, so Adin Hill is the probable starter for Vegas, though the team hasn't confirmed it. Hill has a 89.1% save percentage and a 2.84 goals-against average this season, close to Hart's numbers.
Pittsburgh's choice is murkier. Arturs Silovs is listed as the probable starter, though that isn't confirmed, and coach Dan Muse hasn't committed to a rotation. The difference matters: Silovs has stopped 88.9% of shots, Murashov 87.1% with a 3.83 goals-against average. As a team, Pittsburgh's save percentage ranks 26th, and Vegas's ranks 14th.
Who is in, who is out
Malkin is day-to-day with a lower-body injury and did not practice Monday. Muse said he isn't overly concerned, but his status for Tuesday is not confirmed. Malkin has 6 goals in 13 games, and Andrei Kuzmenko moved into his spot at practice. Defenseman Kaedan Korczak is also day-to-day, and Justin Brazeau is set to make his season debut. Bryan Rust remains on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, with a re-evaluation expected in early December.
Without Malkin, the creative load falls heavily on Erik Karlsson, who leads Pittsburgh with 16 points. Vegas counters with Jack Eichel, at 20 points in 16 games, and Mark Stone, whose 10 goals lead the team. Victor Olofsson's status for Tuesday is unclear, and Parker Wotherspoon remains on injured reserve.
What the market and trends say
Vegas beat Pittsburgh 6-2 on Oct. 17 in Las Vegas, but this one is priced tight: Vegas -111, Pittsburgh -108, with the Penguins at +1.5 on the puck line. Vegas has covered the puck line just 6 times in 16 games, and its games have gone over 11 times. Pittsburgh's games have gone over nine times in 14.
- Whether Malkin skates in warmups
- Vegas's kill in the first Pittsburgh power play
- Pittsburgh's starts: it allows 1.21 first-period goals per game, 28th
Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins line movement and odds
| Book | Knights ML | Penguins ML | Knights spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 | +1.5 (-275) | o6.5 (-120) |
| BetRivers | -110 | -108 | -1.5 (+220) | o6.5 (-125) |
| DraftKings | -118 | -102 | -1.5 (+210) | o6.5 (-125) |
| ESPN BET | -115 | -105 | -1.5 (+190) | o6.5 (-125) |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 | -1.5 (+210) | o6.5 (-120) |
| FanDuel | -110 | -110 | +1.5 (-260) | o6.5 (-122) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -105 | -1.5 (+180) | o6.5 (-120) |
| Caesars | -112 | -106 | -1.5 (+210) | o6.5 (-127) |
Where the money is on Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins
On the Kalshi moneyline: Vegas Golden Knights: 58% of bets, 58% of the money; Pittsburgh Penguins: 42% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Vegas Golden Knights -2.5: 50% of bets, 98% of the money; Pittsburgh Penguins +2.5: 50% of bets, 2% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 50% of bets, 35% of the money; Under 6.5: 50% of bets, 65% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Vegas Golden Knights (1 wallet, $819). Largest: Tattered-Screamer $819 on Vegas Golden Knights.
Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins stats (this season)
| Stat | Vegas Golden Knights | Pittsburgh Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-5-2 | 5-7-2 |
| Goals per game | 3.38 (12th of 32) | 3.29 (13th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 2.88 (8th of 32) | 3.43 (23rd of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 0.50 (7th of 32) | -0.14 (20th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 28.8 (8th of 32) | 28.3 (10th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 25.7 (9th of 32) | 27.9 (19th of 32) |
| Shot share | 52.8% (9th of 32) | 50.3% (12th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 11.7% (16th of 32) | 11.6% (17th of 32) |
| Team save % | 88.8% (14th of 32) | 87.7% (26th of 32) |
| Power play % | 27.7% (7th of 32) | 21.1% (16th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 70.0% (26th of 32) | 85.7% (6th of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 50.3% (15th of 32) | 45.3% (31st of 32) |
Key players
- Jack Eichel (Vegas Golden Knights): Eichel has 20 points in 16 games this season, including 13 assists.
- Mark Stone (Vegas Golden Knights): Stone has 10 goals this season on a 31.2% shooting percentage.
- Adin Hill (Vegas Golden Knights): Hill carries a 89.1% save percentage and 2.84 goals-against average in 7 games this season.
- Erik Karlsson (Pittsburgh Penguins): Karlsson leads Pittsburgh with 16 points this season while logging 23.3 minutes a night.
- Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins): Malkin has 6 goals in 13 games this season but is day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
- Arturs Silovs (Pittsburgh Penguins): Silovs has a 88.9% save percentage and 2.98 goals-against average in 9 games this season.
Numbers that matter
| Vegas penalty kill | 70.0% | Ranks 26th of 32, the weakest unit on either side of this matchup. |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh home record | 4-1-1 | The Penguins are 1-6-1 on the road, so home ice has carried their season. |
| Pittsburgh penalty kill | 85.7% | Ranks 6th and stands against a Vegas power play ranked 7th. |
| Vegas moneyline | -111 | A slim favorite despite playing the second night of a back-to-back. |
| Vegas over/under record | 11-5 | Vegas games have cleared the total in 11 of 16 against a 6.5 line tonight. |
Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins: quick answers
What is the over/under for Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Where is Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins played?
PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh.
Has the line moved for Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
No: Vegas Golden Knights has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Vegas Golden Knights: 58% of bets, 58% of the money; Pittsburgh Penguins: 42% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Vegas Golden Knights -2.5: 50% of bets, 98% of the money; Pittsburgh Penguins +2.5: 50% of bets, 2% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 6.5: 50% of bets, 35% of the money; Under 6.5: 50% of bets, 65% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Vegas Golden Knights (1 wallet, $819). Largest: Tattered-Screamer $819 on Vegas Golden Knights. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.