Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: Leafs back Bobrovsky over Stolarz against Utah's league-best power play
Toronto's coach picked his struggling veteran over his hot backup, and the Mammoth's first-ranked power play will test that choice.
| Line | Utah Mammoth -130 (puck line -1.5) |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 6.5 |
- Expect a busy, high-event game: both teams score freely, neither goalie has been sharp, and Utah's special teams can swing it either way.
- Utah's power play, first in the league, against Toronto's penalty kill, second, with Sergei Bobrovsky confirmed in net behind it.
- Utah is a -130 road favorite with the total at 6.5, but the Mammoth are 5-10 on the puck line this season.
A goaltending choice under scrutiny
Toronto had an easy option in net and passed on it. Anthony Stolarz enters 5-1 with three straight wins and a .910 save percentage. Jim Hiller instead confirmed after Monday's practice that Sergei Bobrovsky will start, offering only, "Well, we have a plan."
Bobrovsky has struggled. He carries a .885 save percentage and a 3.29 goals-against average through 10 games. There is a carrot, too: a win would move him past Henrik Lundqvist for the most wins by a goalie born outside North America.
Utah's crease is no steadier. Karel Vejmelka is the probable starter, though the team hasn't confirmed it, and he sits at .871 this season. As a team, the Mammoth's save percentage ranks 32nd of 32. Neither club rested on a back-to-back, so tonight's starters are choices, not fatigue moves.
The best power play against an elite kill
This is the matchup that can decide the night. Utah converts 34.6% of its power plays (goals per opportunity), first in the NHL. Toronto kills 91.1% of its penalties, second in the league.
The Leafs have to stay out of the box to protect that edge, and they haven't. Toronto is shorthanded 3.5 times per game, 26th in the league, while Utah draws power plays at the sixth-highest rate.
The reverse matchup favors Toronto clearly. Utah's penalty kill sits 28th at 69.4%, and the Leafs' power play ranks sixth. Utah also ranks 26th in penalty minutes, so a parade to the box cuts both ways for the Mammoth.
Utah controls the puck, Toronto finishes
At even strength, Utah has been the better team at the shot clock. The Mammoth take 55.0% of all shots in their games (shot share), third in the league, and allow only 24.5 shots per game. That should bother a Toronto defense that gives up 29.3 shots a night, 25th of 32.
Toronto counters with finishing. Auston Matthews has 11 goals and William Nylander has 10, and the Leafs shoot 13.4%, seventh in the league. For Utah, Clayton Keller drives the offense with 14 assists, while Logan Cooley has scored eight goals on just 23 shots, a pace that rarely holds. Fifteen or so games is a small sample, but Utah's problem has been stopping pucks, not getting them.
The Mammoth won the first meeting 5-4 in Utah on Oct. 13.
Toronto's thin forward group
The Leafs are missing a lot of center depth. John Tavares (lower body) returned to practice but remains on injured reserve and is out tonight; reports on his timeline conflict. Kirill Marchenko (lower body) is on IR and expected to miss weeks, and Max Domi and Miles Wood are also out.
There is help on the back end: Chris Tanev was activated from IR before Saturday's 4-2 win over Vancouver. Marshall Rifai's status is unclear.
Utah is without defenseman John Marino (upper body, IR). Kailer Yamamoto is day-to-day with an upper-body injury after missing Sunday's 6-3 loss at Philadelphia; his status for tonight hadn't been reported.
What the market is saying
Utah is a -130 road favorite, with Toronto at +110. The total sits at 6.5, and neither it nor the puck line has moved since our feed first saw the game.
The puck line has been unkind to Utah. The Mammoth are 5-10 against it and were favored and failed to cover in each of their last five. Overs have dominated both sides: Utah is 10-5 to the over and Toronto 10-6. With two shaky goalies and two top-six power plays, the total's history is easy to understand.
Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs line movement and odds
| Book | Mammoth ML | Leafs ML | Mammoth spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -135 | +110 | -1.5 (+170) | o6.5 (-135) |
| BetRivers | -130 | +108 | -1.5 (+185) | o6.5 (-124) |
| DraftKings | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (+180) | o6.5 (-130) |
| ESPN BET | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (+175) | o6.5 (-130) |
| Fanatics | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (+175) | o6.5 (-135) |
| FanDuel | -134 | +112 | -1.5 (+164) | o6.5 (-128) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (+160) | o6.5 (-130) |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 | -1.5 (+172) | o6.5 (-130) |
Where the money is on Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs
On the Kalshi moneyline: Utah Mammoth: 47% of bets, 78% of the money; Toronto Maple Leafs: 53% of bets, 22% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Utah Mammoth -1.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 3.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 3.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.
Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs stats (this season)
| Stat | Utah Mammoth | Toronto Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-6-0 | 8-6-2 |
| Goals per game | 3.60 (6th of 32) | 3.75 (4th of 32) |
| Goals allowed per game | 3.47 (26th of 32) | 3.25 (19th of 32) |
| Goal differential per game | 0.13 (15th of 32) | 0.50 (7th of 32) |
| Shots on goal per game | 29.9 (6th of 32) | 28.1 (12th of 32) |
| Shots allowed per game | 24.5 (3rd of 32) | 29.3 (25th of 32) |
| Shot share | 55.0% (3rd of 32) | 48.9% (18th of 32) |
| Shooting % | 12.1% (11th of 32) | 13.4% (7th of 32) |
| Team save % | 85.8% (32nd of 32) | 88.9% (12th of 32) |
| Power play % | 34.6% (1st of 32) | 30.0% (6th of 32) |
| Penalty kill % | 69.4% (28th of 32) | 91.1% (2nd of 32) |
| Faceoff % | 54.5% (5th of 32) | 52.8% (7th of 32) |
Key players
- Sergei Bobrovsky (Toronto Maple Leafs): His .885 save percentage and 3.29 goals-against average this season trail backup Anthony Stolarz's numbers.
- Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs): Leads Toronto with 11 goals and 24 points in 16 games this season.
- William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs): Has 10 goals and 21 points, shooting 21.7% this season.
- Karel Vejmelka (Utah Mammoth): Owns an .871 save percentage and a 3.31 goals-against average in 12 games this season.
- Clayton Keller (Utah Mammoth): Leads Utah with 18 points, 14 of them assists, this season.
- Logan Cooley (Utah Mammoth): Has eight goals on 23 shots, a 34.8% shooting rate this season.
Numbers that matter
| Utah power play | 34.6% | First in the NHL, aimed at a Toronto team that is shorthanded often. |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto penalty kill | 91.1% | Second in the league and the main shield for a struggling goalie. |
| Utah team save % | 85.8 | Last of 32 teams, which undercuts Utah's strong shot share. |
| Utah moneyline | -130 | The Mammoth are road favorites despite a 5-10 puck line record. |
| Total | 6.5 | Unchanged since first seen, with both teams leaning heavily to the over this season. |
Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs: quick answers
What is the over/under for Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
The total is 6.5 goals.
When is Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET.
Where is Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs played?
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto.
Has the line moved for Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
No: Utah Mammoth has stayed at -1.5, and the total is still 6.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Utah Mammoth vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Utah Mammoth: 47% of bets, 78% of the money; Toronto Maple Leafs: 53% of bets, 22% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Utah Mammoth -1.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 3.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Under 3.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money.