Minnesota Wild vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction: Wallstedt and the Wild defense face the NHL's lowest-scoring Flyers

Where the goals come from

Philadelphia has the league's quietest offense. The Flyers score 2.19 goals per game, 32nd of 32, and now face a Minnesota team that allows just 2.25, third-best in the NHL. That is the shape of this game: a 10-3-3 visitor that wins by suffocating opponents against a 4-8-4 host that struggles to generate anything.

The shot share tells it plainly. Shot share is a team's portion of all shots on goal in its games, and Minnesota sits at 54.9%, 4th in the league. Philadelphia is at 43.9%, 30th. The Flyers also rank 30th in first-period scoring, so a slow start against a team that likes to get ahead early could put them chasing from the opening faceoff.

There is one wrinkle. Philadelphia won both meetings last season, each by a single goal, including a 2-1 win in this building. Two tight games are a thin sample, but they show the Flyers can drag the Wild into a low-event grind.

Wallstedt and a split crease

Jesper Wallstedt is the probable starter for Minnesota, though the team hasn't confirmed it. He has carried the load with a .920 save percentage and a 2.06 goals-against average this season, and he made 26 saves in Sunday's 5-1 win at Washington. With Filip Gustavsson on injured reserve after hip surgery and slated to miss at least another month, Calvin Pickard is the backup.

Philadelphia's crease is murkier. The listings split between Joseph Woll and Dan Vladar, and neither is confirmed. Woll has the better numbers, an .899 save percentage, while Vladar sits at .885 but started Sunday's 6-3 win over Utah. Neither is giving the Flyers the kind of goaltending that offsets a heavy shot deficit, and Philadelphia allows 29.8 shots per game, 27th in the league.

A power play with an opening

Special teams tilt toward Minnesota. The Wild's power play (goals per opportunity with the man advantage) converts at 26.3%, 8th in the NHL, and they draw 3.56 power plays per game, 4th-most. Philadelphia's penalty kill sits at 80.0%, a middle-of-the-pack 14th, but the Flyers put themselves shorthanded too often, ranking 24th in times shorthanded.

If the Flyers can't stay out of the box, the Wild's top unit gets repeated looks against a team that already spends most of the night defending. Philadelphia's own power play, at 15.7%, ranks 27th and offers little counterpunch.

Kaprizov's pace, Michkov's finishing

Kirill Kaprizov leads the league with 15 goals and has 25 points in 16 games. He reached 500 career points in Sunday's win in Washington, the Wild's fourth straight road win. His 28.3% shooting will cool at some point, but Quinn Hughes, with 21 points while logging heavy minutes, keeps feeding the attack from the back end.

Philadelphia's best hope is Matvei Michkov, whose scoring streak continued against Utah. He has 10 goals on just 23 shots, a 43.5% clip that is extraordinary and almost certainly unsustainable. Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett both returned from injuries in that Utah win, which gives the Flyers more finishing help than they have had lately.

Who is missing

Minnesota's blue line is thinned. Jared Spurgeon is on injured reserve after getting hurt in the Utah game and is listed as week-to-week. Brock Faber remains on injured reserve after skull surgery; as of Oct. 29 he had cleared his return-to-play protocol and could resume skating within days, with no return date set. Nick and Marcus Foligno are both on injured reserve.

For Philadelphia, Rasmus Ristolainen is on injured reserve with a hand injury, and Helge Grans was listed as day-to-day as of Oct. 30.

What the market says

The Wild are -175 on the moneyline with the Flyers at +146, and the total sits at 5.5. Neither the puck line nor the total has moved since our feed first recorded the game.

• Minnesota is 10-6 on the puck line this season.
• The Wild's games have gone under 11 of 16 times.
• Whether Woll or Vladar takes the Flyers' crease is the last piece to watch before puck drop.