Iowa State Cyclones vs Arizona Wildcats prediction: Noah Fifita and Arizona chase bowl eligibility against a fading Cyclones defense

A defense losing its grip

Arizona has plenty riding on Saturday evening in Tucson. A homecoming win clinches bowl eligibility for a second straight season and protects the program's first AP ranking of the year. It would also answer the 39-14 beating Iowa State handed the Wildcats last season. The Cyclones arrive 3-3, and their defense has been coming apart.

Across its last three games against Utah, West Virginia and BYU, Iowa State allowed 0.299 EPA per play. EPA is expected points added per play, and for a defense, higher is worse. Opponents posted a 48.7% success rate in that stretch, which is the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule.

Arizona's offense is trending the other way, averaging 40.0 points over its last three. Noah Fifita is throwing at 9.2 yards per attempt. The Wildcats convert 55.6% of their third downs, 4th in the country.

The receivers are the worry. Tre Spivey is reportedly out for the season with a broken foot, though that is unconfirmed. Gio Richardson and Chris Hunter also left the Cincinnati win hurt, and there has been no update on either since. Arizona still won 52-31 at West Virginia without its top three receivers, with Isaiah Mizell catching six passes for 183 yards and two touchdowns.

Pressure is Iowa State's best lever, and it doesn't have much. The Cyclones average 1.5 sacks per game, 100th. That matters because Arizona's line ranks 116th in sacks allowed.

Raynor's third-down problem

Jimmy Rogers spent the week saying he wants better play from Jaylen Raynor while backing him as the team's leader. The numbers explain both halves of that. Raynor threw for 98 yards in the road loss at BYU. Over his last three games he has averaged 5.9 yards per attempt.

Injuries in the receiver room have pushed young players into bigger roles. Iowa State ranks 119th in passing yards per game. It converts 31.0% of its third downs, which ranks 127th.

Arizona's pass defense makes that harder. The Wildcats rank 17th in passing EPA allowed. There is one opening: Arizona allows 40.7% on third down, 96th. If Raynor can extend drives there, Iowa State can shorten the game and keep Fifita on the sideline.

Flora and the explosive escape hatch

The Cyclones' realistic path runs through Aiden Flora. He averages 7.6 yards per carry. Against West Virginia, the same defense Arizona carved up a week later, he ran for 212 yards.

This is the one place where Iowa State's strength lines up with an Arizona weakness. The Cyclones rank 33rd in explosiveness, which measures how much value their successful plays produce. Arizona ranks 133rd in explosiveness allowed, the one bad mark on an otherwise sound defense. The Wildcats don't give up many successful plays, but the ones they allow tend to go a long way. Iowa State will need a few of those to cover.

Schedule, returns and the kicker

Arizona's record is softer than it looks. Its FBS opponents average -2.4 in SP+, while Iowa State's average 7.0. The Cyclones' three losses include Utah and BYU, both top-10 SP+ teams. Arizona's best win by that measure was the blowout of Cincinnati.

The hidden yards favor the visitors. Iowa State averages 29.8 yards per kick return, 9th nationally. Arizona allows 30.5 yards per kick return, 133rd. The Wildcats have also made 6/9 field goals, so a stalled drive in the red zone could cost them points.

Iowa State has 15 days of rest and Arizona 14, so neither side has a real rest edge.

What the number says

The market opened Arizona -10 and hasn't moved. Our model is close behind at Arizona -11.1 with a 76.0% chance of a Wildcats win, and it agrees with the 50.5 total.

One caution for Arizona backers: the Wildcats are 2-4 against the spread and failed to cover both of their double-digit spots. If they do cover, history says the running game probably carried part of the load. Covering favorites tend to go over their rushing totals, which puts Antwan Roberts and the ground game in the frame alongside Fifita.