Colorado Buffaloes vs Oklahoma State Cowboys prediction: Colorado's havoc front gets its shot at Mestemaker's clean pocket

Havoc against a clean pocket

Oklahoma State comes home for a sold-out Homecoming off a 35-32 loss at Houston. Colorado arrives having lost four straight. The Buffaloes do have one weapon the Cowboys should fear: a front that lives in the backfield. Whether it can reach Drew Mestemaker before he picks apart the secondary is the whole game.

Colorado ranks 4th in havoc rate at 21.7%. Havoc is the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup. The Buffaloes are also 4th in stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line. Santana Hopper has 9.5 tackles for loss, five of them against Texas Tech alone.

Oklahoma State's line is built to blunt exactly that. The Cowboys allow 0.83 sacks per game, 10th in the country, and their havoc allowed rate ranks 18th. Mestemaker has been surgical behind it. He has averaged 11.9 yards per attempt over his last three games. He threw 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in that stretch.

Behind Colorado's front, the coverage is ordinary. The Buffaloes rank 72nd in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play) and 93rd in passing yards allowed per game. Wyatt Young has 561 receiving yards, and Justin Bowick has scored in four straight games.

The Cowboys' run game is where the front can bite. Oklahoma State ranks 96th in rushing EPA per play, and Colorado allows 2.47 line yards per carry, 11th nationally. If the Buffaloes win early downs, they drag the Cowboys onto third down, where Oklahoma State converts just 34.3%.

Colorado keeps beating itself

The Buffaloes' offense hands games away. Colorado commits 2.17 turnovers per game, 136th of 138. Isaac Wilson has thrown 5 interceptions over his last three games, three of them against Texas Tech. When drives reach scoring range, Colorado gets 2.27 points per opportunity, 133rd. Its kicker has made 4 of 8 field goals, while Oklahoma State is 13 for 13.

The field tilts too. Colorado's average starting field position is its own 25.7, 131st, while opponents start at the 32.1, 134th. Add 84.3 penalty yards per game, 136th, and the Buffaloes play long fields on offense and short ones on defense.

Wilson's arm is not the only story. He averaged 8.5 yards per attempt at Utah, and Deion Sanders said he still believes in him. The schedule has been brutal, with Texas Tech (7th in SP+) and Utah (10th) in the last three. Colorado nearly stole the Utah game, losing 27-24 as a 15-point underdog. Still, the Buffaloes have averaged 14.7 points over their last three.

Who is missing on both sides

Colorado will be without running back Micah Welch, who hurt his hand against Utah. That puts more on Jaquail Smith, who averages 5.1 yards per carry this season but 4.0 over his last three games. A longer list of Colorado absences, including receivers Kam Perry and Danny Scudero, has not been confirmed.

Oklahoma State loses safety Mose Phillips III to a shoulder injury, which Eric Morris confirmed Tuesday. Evan Jackson is likely to start at boundary safety. That matters for a defense that ranks 81st in passing EPA allowed. Wyatt Young, with 561 receiving yards, is the receiver most likely to test the new alignment.

The number and the script

Oklahoma State opened at -12.5 and has moved to -13.5, with the total at 56. Our model lands almost exactly there, projecting a 34.7-21.4 finish. It gives the Cowboys an 80% chance to win. For the first half, it has Oklahoma State -7 with a total of 28.7.

The Cowboys are 5-1 against the spread this season; Colorado is 2-4. In our testing, favorites that cover go over their rushing line 33.9% of the time. That puts Caleb Hawkins against Colorado's run defense, 15th in rushing EPA allowed, at the center of any Cowboys cover.