Vanderbilt Commodores vs Kentucky Wildcats prediction: Jared Curtis must stop gifting the ball to Kentucky's ball hawks

The giveaway problem

Kentucky has spent October winning games it was supposed to lose. Now the No. 12 Wildcats, tied atop the SEC under first-year coach Will Stein, face a game they are supposed to win, against the only team still winless in league play. How simple it stays depends mostly on how often Jared Curtis hands them the ball.

Vanderbilt turns it over 1.71 times per game, 122nd of 138 FBS teams. Kentucky takes it away 2.29 times per game, third in the country. The freshman quarterback has thrown 5 interceptions in his last 3 games. The costliest came against Arkansas: an ill-advised shovel pass in Razorbacks territory that Miguel Mitchell picked off with Vanderbilt down 28-21. Clark Lea's message afterward read as a warning that no role on this team is safe.

Kentucky's secondary is built to punish exactly that. Jordan Castell has 4 interceptions this season. Ty Bryant has 3 in his last 3 games, and he and Castell each picked off 2 passes at Oklahoma. On the other side, Kenny Minchey has thrown 13 touchdowns against 1 interception. The Wildcats can win the turnover battle without doing anything special.

Baxter returns to a soft front

CJ Baxter Jr. missed the Oklahoma win with a hamstring injury, and Stein expects him back this week. That matters more than a depth chart suggests. Baxter averaged 6.7 yards per carry over his last 3 games. Jason Patterson, who carried the load at Oklahoma, managed 3.8 per carry over his own last 3.

Vanderbilt's run defense is giving ground. Its stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, sits at 16.2%, 104th nationally. Georgia, Ole Miss and Arkansas posted a 56.7% success rate against the Commodores (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) and averaged 40.3 points. Edge rusher Brian Allen Jr. is out with an ankle injury, and linebacker Josiah Broxton is doubtful.

Our projection gives Kentucky 174 rushing yards. Favorites who cover tend to clear their rushing lines, so a big Baxter night and a Kentucky cover belong in the same picture.

Kentucky's third-down puzzle

The reason this spread isn't wider is that Kentucky can't move the chains on third down. The Wildcats convert 29.1% of the time, 136th in FBS. Their defense allows 47.1%, 131st.

The offense survives on early downs instead. It ranks 24th in success rate but 113th in explosiveness, so it moves in small chunks and needs every one of them. That is how a 6-1 team won at South Carolina and beat LSU by identical 35-34 scores. Field goals add to the strain: Kentucky is 8/12, and long snapper Cole Marszalek is doubtful.

Vanderbilt's best answer is Junior Sherrill, who has 628 receiving yards, 261 of them in the last 3 games. Kentucky ranks 118th in passing yards allowed but 41st in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play). Receivers get their catches, but the Wildcats rarely let them turn into touchdowns. Curtis has to be patient enough to take the underneath throws without forcing the ball into Castell's area.

Revenge, a bye and the number

Kentucky has a score to settle. Vanderbilt is 3-2 against Kentucky under Lea, with two of those wins at Kroger Field, and last season's meeting ended 45-17 in Nashville. The stadium is sold out, and this is Kentucky's final game before a needed bye week.

Kentucky is 6-1 against the spread, and it won outright as an underdog at South Carolina, against LSU and at Oklahoma. Vanderbilt has lost four straight, including a failed cover as a favorite against Arkansas. The line opened Kentucky -9.5 and has moved to -10.5, with the total at 51.5. Our model is slightly more bullish on the home side: Kentucky by 12.33, a 78% win probability, and a total of 51.71 that sits right on the market.