UTSA Roadrunners vs Tulane Green Wave prediction: UTSA's ground game runs into Tulane's run-defense problem in New Orleans

Nobody stops the run

UTSA arrives 6-1 and unbeaten in the American, chasing a conference title. Tulane sits at 3-3, and Will Hall called the Roadrunners the league's next favorite after his team beat Memphis. The cleanest path to the outcome runs straight through the line of scrimmage.

Tulane allows 212.5 rushing yards per game, 133rd of 138 FBS teams. Its front gives up 3.24 line yards per carry (yards credited to the offensive line on each run), 121st nationally, and its stuff rate (share of runs stopped at or behind the line) ranks 119th. That's a bad matchup for a UTSA offense that ranks 20th in rushing EPA per play (expected points added on each snap).

Henderson carries the load at 6.0 yards per carry across 94 attempts. A'Marion Peterson is the finisher, with 8 rushing touchdowns on just 45 carries. One caution: UTSA's own line yards per carry rank only 71st, so much of that production comes from the backs, not from the line pushing people around.

The Roadrunners can't count on stopping Tulane's run in return. UTSA allows 199.9 rushing yards per game, 128th nationally, and ranks 110th in rushing EPA allowed. Tulane's Maurice Turner averages 8.5 yards per carry and ran for 200 yards against Southern Miss. Jamauri McClure remains out with a foot injury, which leaves the carries to Turner and Johnnie Daniels.

Tulane's all-or-nothing offense

Tulane's offense is a strange machine. Its success rate (share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) is 32.9%, 137th of 138. Its explosiveness, the average value of its successful plays, ranks 1st. The Wave fail on most snaps and then hit something huge.

That profile usually dies against a defense that creates negative plays, and Tulane's line is vulnerable there. It ranks 133rd in havoc allowed (plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or breakup) and gives up 2.5 sacks per game. UTSA, though, is poorly built to punish that. The Roadrunners rank 123rd in havoc and 132nd in sacks at 0.86 per game. Tulane's biggest weakness lines up against one of UTSA's biggest.

Trace Johnson makes his second straight start. "Yeah, we'll start Trace (Johnson)," Hall said after the Memphis win. Johnson replaced Kadin Semonza for performance reasons, not injury. Semonza completed 53.8% of his passes, so the bar Johnson has to clear isn't high, but Tulane's passing offense still ranks 116th in EPA per play.

The hidden yards favor Tulane

Tulane's defense bends and then holds. It allows 2.49 points per scoring opportunity, 9th nationally, despite ranking 124th on third down. UTSA has trouble finishing drives, at 3.44 points per opportunity, 102nd. Long Roadrunner drives that end in field goals would keep Tulane within reach.

Special teams lean the same way. Tulane's net punt of 46.9 yards ranks 7th, and it allows 9.3 yards per kick return, best in the country. UTSA's punting ranks 99th in net average.

UTSA also gives away yards on its own. It commits 83.9 penalty yards per game, 134th of 138. It protects the ball, though: 0.43 turnovers per game ranks 5th. That matters against a Tulane defense that forced six turnovers against Memphis, including TJ Smith's 76-yard interception return on the last play of the first half.

Form, health and the number

UTSA's record is cleaner than its recent margins. It beat Rice 16-14, South Florida 31-24 and Navy 38-34, and it failed to cover as a favorite against Rice and Navy. McCown was sharp against Navy, throwing for 359 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he won it with a 41-yard strike to Peterson with 2:24 left.

The Roadrunners are also banged up. Traylor said the whole team was beaten up after Navy. Lineman Ben Rios returned for that game after missing two but wasn't fully healthy. Receiver David Amador II landed awkwardly against Navy, and Traylor said he'll be "good to go."

Tulane has covered as an underdog three times: at Kansas State, at Army and at home against Memphis. The last two meetings went UTSA 48-26 in 2025 and Tulane 29-16 in 2023.

The spread opened and sits at UTSA by 2.5 across 25 books. Our model makes it 1.78 and projects a 26.6 to 24.9 final, giving Tulane a 46.0% chance to win at home. With both run defenses this poor, a game played on the ground fits the tested pattern that rushing yards go with the over. The total of 51.5 matches our fair number exactly.