San Diego State Aztecs vs Colorado State Rams prediction: Colorado State's broken run defense gives a limping SDSU offense life
The Aztecs can barely move the ball against anyone, but the Rams have stopped almost nobody on the ground, and they just changed defensive play-callers mid-game.
| Spread | San Diego State -1.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 59.5 |
- Expect points on both sides: Colorado State's big-play offense against SDSU's bend-heavy defense, while the Rams' defense tries to stop anyone running.
- SDSU's run-first attack against a Colorado State defense ranked 138th of 138 in rushing yards allowed, now under new play-caller Kenny McClendon.
- Our model makes it San Diego State by 0.75 with a 63.5 total, a hair closer than the market and level on the total.
A defense with no floor
Colorado State has allowed 60.3 points per game over its last three. The low point came last time out, when Texas State set a school record with 503 rushing yards in a 66-27 rout of the Rams. Now a San Diego State team built to run the ball comes to Canvas Stadium at 2-1 in Pac-12 play.
The season numbers say the Texas State game was no fluke. The Rams give up 269.7 rushing yards per game, last of 138 FBS teams, and they rank 138th in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard). Their front loses the line of scrimmage: Colorado State allows 3.56 line yards per carry, 136th, and its stuff rate (share of runs stopped at or behind the line) sits at 14.9%, 121st.
The Rams also changed defensive voices in the middle of a game. Kenny McClendon took over play-calling from coordinator Tyson Summers, and accounts differ on whether Summers was fired or left the field on his own. Whatever McClendon changes, he has one week to fix a unit that ranks 138th in success rate allowed at 53.1%.
Key players
- Jayden Denegal (San Diego State): Questionable with a lower-leg injury, he has completed 54.7% of his passes this season at 6.0 yards per attempt.
- Lucky Sutton (San Diego State): He ran for 110 yards on 18 carries against Fresno State, his best output of the last three games.
- Javion Kinnard (San Diego State): The team's leading rusher has 432 yards at 5.3 per carry this season.
- Djibril Abdou Rahman (San Diego State): He leads the Aztecs with 4.0 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss in five games.
- Ksaan Farrar (Colorado State): He averaged 7.2 yards per attempt over his last three starts and would start if Hauss Hejny can't.
- Jayden Brown (Colorado State): He averages 9.2 yards per carry, the clearest sign of the Rams' big-play running game.
- Reginald Vick Jr (Colorado State): He leads the Rams with 367 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns in five games.
- Oumar Diomande (Colorado State): He has a team-high 54 tackles.
Numbers that matter
| CSU rush yards allowed | 269.7 | Per game, last of 138 FBS teams, and the core of SDSU's case. |
|---|---|---|
| CSU explosiveness | 1.45 | Second in FBS, the reason the Rams can score even while losing badly. |
| SDSU third-down rate | 29.3% | 135th of 138, which caps how long the Aztecs can hold the ball. |
| CSU points allowed, last 3 | 60.3 | The Rams' defense is getting worse, not better, heading into this game. |
| Market spread | +1.2 | Colorado State's number, down from +2.0 at the open. |
San Diego State Aztecs vs Colorado State Rams: quick answers
Who is favored in San Diego State Aztecs vs Colorado State Rams?
San Diego State is favored by 1.5 points (San Diego State -1.5).
What is the over/under for San Diego State Aztecs vs Colorado State Rams?
The total is 59.5 points.
When is San Diego State Aztecs vs Colorado State Rams?
Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET.