Ole Miss Rebels vs Texas Longhorns prediction: Without Colin Simmons, Texas must find another way to rattle Chambliss
Texas's pass rush loses its best player just as Ole Miss arrives with one of the country's best-protected quarterbacks and an offense that stays on schedule.
| Spread | Texas -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 54 |
- Expect a grinding game: Ole Miss moves the ball steadily, Texas limits big plays, and red-zone finishing likely decides it.
- Texas's depleted edge rush, minus Colin Simmons and Richard Wesley, against an Ole Miss line allowing 0.83 sacks per game.
- Our number sits at Texas -3.46, essentially the market's -3.5, with a fair total of 54.13.
The rush loses its closer
Texas has lost two straight, both by 27-24, and now faces No. 7 Ole Miss without the player who has carried its defense. Colin Simmons is doubtful with a high ankle sprain and expected to miss the game. Fellow edge Richard Wesley is out.
That hurts. Simmons has 10 sacks this season, and 8 of them came in the last three games. He is a big reason Texas averages 3.17 sacks per game, 6th in the country. Without him, the Longhorns must generate pressure against an Ole Miss line that allows 0.83 sacks per game, 10th nationally.
The Rebels have their own line questions. Left tackle Terez Davis and center Brycen Sanders both left the Missouri game hurt and are questionable, though Sanders returned that day and neither looks in serious danger of missing. Patrick Kutas is probable. If that group holds up, Trinidad Chambliss gets a clean pocket. He has thrown a touchdown pass in 19 straight games and is closing in on the program record.
Manning behind a shaky wall
The Texas offense has the opposite problem: its line is the weak spot. Texas ranks 115th in line yards per carry (how much push the blockers create on runs) at 2.79. It ranks 128th in havoc allowed (the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or pass breakup) at 18.3%. Manning has been sacked 2.83 times per game, 123rd.
The last three games tell the story. Texas's success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) fell to 36.8%, and its EPA (expected points added per play) was -0.114. Yet when Manning has time, he hits: he averaged 9.1 yards per attempt over that stretch. The trouble is the giveaways. He threw two interceptions against Oklahoma and lost a late fumble against Florida, when Texas blew a 17-3 first-half lead. Sarkisian confirmed Manning as the starter but said he needs a better version of him.
Ole Miss may not be built to punish that line. Its defense ranks 83rd in sacks per game and 59th in havoc rate. The bigger opening is in the back end. Safeties Edwin Joseph and MJ Preston are out, and cornerback Pat Broomfield is questionable, for a pass defense already allowing 236.5 yards per game (104th).
Steady drives against a stingy defense
Ole Miss wins by staying on schedule, not with big plays. Its offensive success rate of 51.9% ranks 5th, while its explosiveness (how much each successful play gains) ranks 108th. That approach runs into a Texas defense that ranks 9th in explosiveness allowed and 2nd in yards per play allowed at 4.15.
So the game likely turns on long drives and how they end. Ole Miss scores 4.86 points per scoring opportunity, 10th nationally. Texas allows just 2.61, 13th. Third down shapes those drives too: the Rebels convert 47.9% (24th), while Texas allows 33.3% (33rd). On the other side, Ole Miss allows conversions on 44.0% of third downs, 117th, a real chance for a Texas offense that has struggled to stay ahead of the chains.
Field position could quietly tilt things. Ole Miss starts its average drive at its own 27.1, 111th. Texas, meanwhile, ranks 113th in net punting at 37.8 yards.
Résumés, recent form and the line
The records flatter Ole Miss. The Rebels' FBS opponents average an SP+ of 5.6; Texas's average 11.1, a tougher slate. Even so, Ole Miss is rolling. It beat Vanderbilt 52-17 and Missouri 31-3, and over its last three games it posted 0.35 EPA per play. The one blemish is a 28-52 loss at Florida, the same Florida team that just beat Texas.
The Longhorns are 1-5 against the spread and failed to cover as a 12.5-point favorite against Florida. The market has noticed. Texas opened -6.5 and now sits at -3.5, with the total at 54.
There is family history in the stands, too. Manning's grandfather Archie and uncle Eli both starred at Ole Miss. Sarkisian has ruled out major staff changes and said he won't give up play-calling, so the pressure on this offense to turn things around falls squarely on him.
Key players
- Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss): He has 14 touchdown passes against 4 interceptions, plus 6 rushing scores, at 8.0 yards per attempt.
- Kewan Lacy (Ole Miss): Probable for Saturday, he ran for 122 yards on 16 carries against Missouri.
- Deuce Alexander (Ole Miss): The Rebels' top target has 523 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns this season.
- Blake Purchase (Ole Miss): He leads the Rebels with 3.5 sacks, two of them against Vanderbilt.
- Arch Manning (Texas): He has averaged 9.1 yards per attempt over the last three games but thrown 3 interceptions in that span.
- Colin Simmons (Texas): Doubtful with a high ankle sprain, he leaves a hole after posting 10 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss.
- Rasheem Biles (Texas): The linebacker leads Texas with 49 tackles and has 2 interceptions.
- Cam Coleman (Texas): He leads Texas with 6 receiving touchdowns, including a 110-yard game against Oklahoma.
Numbers that matter
| Simmons sacks | 10.0 | Texas's sack leader is doubtful, a big loss for a pass rush ranked 6th in sacks per game. |
|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss sacks allowed per game | 0.83 | That ranks 10th nationally, so Texas's thinned edge rush faces a well-protected pocket. |
| Texas havoc allowed | 18.3% | That ranks 128th of 138, so Manning has been working behind a line that loses too many snaps. |
| Ole Miss success rate | 51.9% | Ranked 5th, the Rebels' steady offense meets a Texas defense that rarely allows big plays. |
| Opening spread | -6.5 | Texas opened as a 6.5-point favorite and has been bet down to -3.5. |
Ole Miss Rebels vs Texas Longhorns: quick answers
Who is favored in Ole Miss Rebels vs Texas Longhorns?
Texas is favored by 3 points (Texas -3).
What is the over/under for Ole Miss Rebels vs Texas Longhorns?
The total is 54 points.
When is Ole Miss Rebels vs Texas Longhorns?
Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.