North Dakota State vs New Mexico Lobos prediction: Short fields, long night: New Mexico's havoc defense tests North Dakota State

The short-field defense

Saturday night in Albuquerque pairs the two stingiest scoring defenses in FBS, with first place in the Mountain West on the table. New Mexico (5-1, 2-0) allows 10.5 points per game, best in the country. North Dakota State (6-1, 3-1) is right behind at 11.3. The winner takes an inside track toward the conference title.

Polasek expects field position to be at a premium, and that is where New Mexico separates itself. The Lobos lead FBS in havoc rate at 26.0%, the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup. They also lead the nation in takeaways at 3.5 per game. The payoff shows up in where their offense begins: an average starting field position of 37.4, first in FBS.

The Bison usually protect the ball, averaging 0.86 turnovers per game (34th). The exception is telling. In their lone loss, 7-13 at UNLV, Hayes threw three interceptions in a week he spent in a walking boot with a toe injury. He has since played through it, and nothing new has surfaced on his health this week.

A new quarterback, an old formula

New Mexico wins by running. The Lobos average 214.5 rushing yards per game (20th), and their rushing EPA (expected points added per play) ranks 24th. Scottre Humphrey has eight rushing touchdowns, five of them in the last three games.

The passing game is the question. Toa Fa'avae became the starter for good after the win over New Mexico State, with Jack Layne out for the year after elbow trouble and backup James Laubstein lost for the season to a patellar tendon injury at Hawai'i. Fa'avae averages 9.5 yards per attempt for the season. At Hawai'i, though, he went 5 of 10 for 59 yards with two interceptions, and the Lobos were shut out in the first half before winning the second.

This is a hard secondary to find your footing against. NDSU allows 133.9 passing yards per game, second in FBS. Marion Moore has four interceptions. The Bison will be without safety Darius Givance, out at least a month with a back injury.

The crack in the Lobos' wall

New Mexico's defense has one soft spot. It ranks 127th in explosiveness allowed, a measure of how much damage opponents do on their successful plays. Teams rarely move the ball on the Lobos, but when they do, it tends to go a long way.

NDSU's best route to those plays is through the air. Its passing EPA ranks 51st, far ahead of its rushing EPA at 92nd. Protection could open the door: New Mexico allows 2.5 sacks per game, 109th in FBS. On the other side, Kelton McCaslin has 5.0 sacks for the Bison.

Grinding it out on the ground will be tough. New Mexico allows just 2.01 line yards per carry, third nationally, and stuffs 26.8% of runs at or behind the line (sixth). Myles Mitchell has carried the load, Polasek says DJ Scott is back, and Nyeoti Punni is likely out a couple of weeks with a shoulder injury. The Lobos are likely without linebacker Jaxton Eck, who broke a bone in his shoulder.

Soft schedules, stiff wind

Both records rest on soft schedules, New Mexico's more so. The Lobos' FBS opponents carry an average SP+ of -11.7, against -7.1 for NDSU's. New Mexico's one real test was a 6-14 loss at Oklahoma.

The forecast calls for 16 mph wind, which matters in a game that could come down to a kick. New Mexico has made 6 of 9 field goals, which ranks 102nd. The Lobos can flip the field another way: NDSU allows 13.4 yards per punt return, 117th in FBS.

Jason Eck also knows this opponent well. He spent six years coaching against NDSU as a South Dakota State assistant.

Where our number lands

New Mexico is a 4.5-point favorite, moved from 4 at the open, with a total of 41.5. Our model makes it New Mexico by 5.6 on the same total, giving the Lobos a 64% chance to win. For the first half it has New Mexico by 3.4.

The likely script fits a tested link: when the favorite covers, its rushing goes over its line 33.9% of the time, against 25.3% if the two were unrelated. If the Lobos win this, they almost certainly win it on the ground.