Yale vs Northeastern prediction: Yale's offensive rebounding tests Northeastern's soft defensive glass
A rebuilt two-time Ivy champion missed most of its shots in the opener and won anyway on the offensive glass, and Northeastern was beaten on the boards in its own opener.
- Yale likely slows the pace and leans on second chances, while Northeastern tries to score inside and turn the game into a faster, higher-scoring one.
- Yale's offensive rebounders, Daniel Ogunyemi and Courtney Wallace, against a Northeastern front line that lost the boards to Boston University.
- No spread or total is posted yet; Yale covered -7.5 against Howard and finished well under 153.5 at a pace ranked 311th.
A champion starting over
Yale finished last season 24-7 and won its second straight Ivy title, and James Jones, now in his 28th season, has to rebuild the roster that did it. Nick Townsend left for Stanford, Isaac Celiscar for Baylor and Samson Aletan for Providence. The Bulldogs return only 36.8% of last season's minutes, so last year's elite offense is a weak guide to this team.
What's left is shooting. Jordan Brathwaite hit 44.1% from three last season as a reserve, and Trevor Mullin hit 38.2%. It didn't show in the opener. Yale beat Howard 72-62 with an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 41.4%, which ranks 303rd. Riley Fox scored 19 points but needed 17 shots, and Wallace went 1 for 11. Yale was still picked third in the Ivy preseason poll, so expectations stay high despite the roster turnover.
Where Yale won the opener
Yale beat Howard on the glass. The Bulldogs rebounded 52.4% of their own misses, 15th in the country after one weekend. Ogunyemi and Wallace grabbed 11 rebounds each.
That is the matchup that decides this game. Northeastern's defensive rebound rate of 60.0% ranks 291st, and Boston University pulled away late in the Huskies' opener after Northeastern's pressure faded in the second half. If Yale's shooters keep missing, the Huskies' defensive glass decides how much those misses cost them. If Northeastern can't finish defensive possessions, Yale gets the extra shots its offense needs.
Northeastern's two-sided opener
Bill Coen, in his 20th season, is also rebuilding after a 7-24 year. Northeastern brings back 34.0% of its minutes, and the Huskies were picked 11th of 13 in the CAA preseason poll. The new pieces scored right away. Rashad King, a graduate transfer from LSU, scored 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting in his return. "We're very excited to have Rashad back," Coen said. Brayden Young, a transfer from Loyola Chicago, added 13 points off the bench.
The Huskies made 69.4% of their twos, 31st nationally, but went cold from deep at 26.1%. The defense was the bigger problem. BU scored 93, and Northeastern's opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 50.8% ranks 302nd. That is a lot of free throws to give away to Yale, which shot 86.4% from the line against Howard.
Whose tempo wins
Yale plays slowly, and it isn't a fluke of one game. Its pace of 65.5 possessions per 40 minutes ranks 311th this season, close to last season's 65.6. Northeastern played at 72.5 against BU. That opener went over a closing total of 149, while Yale's opener against Howard stayed under.
The last-season adjusted net ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) show the gap the Huskies are trying to close: Yale ranked 85th and Northeastern 278th. Both rosters have turned over too much for those ratings to settle the game. If Northeastern speeds the game up and keeps scoring inside, it can make this close at home. If Yale slows it down and wins the offensive glass, Northeastern will struggle to make up the difference.
Key players
- Riley Fox (Yale): Fox scored 19 against Howard on 6-of-17 shooting, carrying a 27.1% usage rate.
- Jordan Brathwaite (Yale): Brathwaite moved into the starting lineup and scored 17 on 5-of-10 after shooting 44.1% from three off the bench last season.
- Trevor Mullin (Yale): Mullin went 2 for 8 from the field in the opener after a 38.2% three-point season last year.
- Daniel Ogunyemi (Yale): Ogunyemi had 11 rebounds and two blocks in 30 minutes against Howard.
- Rashad King (Northeastern): King led the Huskies with 21 points and a 31.3% usage rate in his return.
- Dorian Grosber (Northeastern): Grosber scored 18 and made 3 of 7 threes against Boston University.
- Mike Loughnane (Northeastern): Loughnane played 37 minutes for 10 points and five assists.
- Brayden Young (Northeastern): Young scored 13 on 4-of-5 shooting in 16 minutes off the bench.
Numbers that matter
| Yale offensive rebound rate | 52.4% | Ranks 15th after the opener and made up for an ice-cold shooting night. |
|---|---|---|
| Northeastern defensive rebound rate | 60.0% | Ranks 291st, the weakness Yale's offensive rebounders will target. |
| Yale returning minutes | 36.8% | Most of the two-time Ivy champion's production left, so last season's numbers are a weak guide. |
| Northeastern 2-point % | 69.4% | Ranks 31st; scoring inside carried the Huskies' offense in their opener. |
| Northeastern opponent free throw rate | 50.8% | Ranks 302nd, and Yale made 86.4% of its free throws against Howard. |
Yale vs Northeastern: quick answers
When is Yale vs Northeastern?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.