Ball State vs SMU prediction: Chris Capko brings Ball State's cold-shooting rebuild back to Moody
Capko's first trip back to SMU as a head coach comes with a Ball State team that took threes like a sharpshooting club and made them like nobody else, against an Enfield roster that lives at the foul line.
- SMU's foul-drawing and size should control the interior unless Ball State's transfer guards rediscover the jumpers they made at their old schools.
- Ball State's three-point volume against an SMU perimeter defense that let Southern shoot 38.1% from deep in the opener.
- No spread or total in our feed yet. Both openers went under, Ball State's against a 161.25 closing total.
Capko comes home
Chris Capko spent 10 seasons on Andy Enfield's staffs at USC and SMU, the last two as SMU's associate head coach. Ball State hired him in March, and his first head-coaching trip to Moody Coliseum comes on Friday night against the man who trained him. Enfield, in his third season, took SMU to its first NCAA Tournament since 2017.
Both benches are coaching mostly new rosters. SMU returns 15.8% of last season's minutes, Ball State 16.6%. Last season's final adjusted ratings had SMU 41st nationally and Ball State 294th of 365 in net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), but with this much turnover those numbers describe programs, not these teams. The rosters that matter are the transfers, and Capko knows the SMU system better than any opposing coach will this year.
Ball State's jumper went missing
Ball State's opener was a brutal shooting night. Ball State took 62.7% of its shots from three, the 6th-highest attempt rate in the country after one game, and made 13.5% of them. Its effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 31.4% ranked 343rd of 348. The Cardinals lost 67-55 at Georgia Southern as a small favorite after trailing by 15 at halftime.
The misses came from players who can shoot. K'Jei Parker went 1 of 10 from deep after hitting 40.8% of his threes at UMass last season. Trey Lewis went 0 of 5. Only Javion Guy-King, with 12 points off the bench, looked comfortable. SMU allowed Southern to hit 38.1% from three, 270th nationally, so the looks may be there again.
SMU lives at the line
SMU's opener was built on free throws. The Mustangs drew a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 88.9%, 2nd in the country, and made 80.0% of them. Ball State fouled at almost the same extreme: its opponent free throw rate of 67.9% ranked 342nd.
Freshman Jakub Szumert drove that attack. He scored 24 points in his college debut, the most by an SMU freshman in a season opener since at least 2000, and hit 92.9% at the line. Jermaine O'Neal Jr., one of the few returners, added 15 points on efficient shooting. If Ball State's guards keep reaching against a bigger lineup, SMU can score without needing a hot jumper.
Where SMU can give it back
The Mustangs' weakness against Southern was the ball itself. Their turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) was 28.4%, 329th nationally, and it helped explain why an 85-72 win fell short of a 25.5-point closing spread. Ball State forced turnovers on 14.5% of possessions in its opener, near the bottom of the country, so the Cardinals have not yet shown they can punish that.
The glass is Ball State's other path. Mason Jones grabbed 13 rebounds in the opener. SMU has the length edge, though, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.3 inches to Ball State's 76.7, and its block rate ranked 51st after Jaden Toombs swatted three shots against Southern.
For game shape, SMU played at 74 possessions per 40 minutes in its opener, a quicker tempo than Ball State's. Both teams went under their closing totals, and the market had not posted a number for this game in our feed as of Wednesday.
Key players
- Jakub Szumert (SMU): Scored 24 points on 83.3% shooting in his debut and made 92.9% of his free throws.
- Rowan Brumbaugh (SMU): Averaged 19.2 points at Tulane last season and posted 4 assists and 3 steals in the opener.
- Jermaine O'Neal Jr. (SMU): Scored 15 points against Southern after shooting 91.7% from the line last season.
- Jaden Toombs (SMU): Filled the box score with 8 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 blocks in the opener.
- K'Jei Parker (Ball State): Went 1 of 10 from three in the opener after making 40.8% of his threes at UMass last season.
- Javion Guy-King (Ball State): Led Ball State with 12 points on 4-of-8 shooting against Georgia Southern.
- Mason Jones (Ball State): Pulled down 13 rebounds in 32 minutes in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| SMU free throw rate | 88.9% | Ranked 2nd nationally after the opener, a direct threat to a Ball State defense that fouled constantly. |
|---|---|---|
| Ball State opponent free throw rate | 67.9% | Ranked 342nd of 348 after Georgia Southern lived at the line. |
| Ball State 3-point % | 13.5% | Came on a 62.7% three-point attempt rate, so a reversion to normal shooting would change the game. |
| SMU turnover rate | 28.4% | Ranked 329th and is the clearest way SMU could let this game tighten. |
Ball State vs SMU: quick answers
When is Ball State vs SMU?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.