UIC vs Saint Mary's prediction: McConnell's rebuilt Saint Mary's faces a UIC team that stayed together

A new era in Moraga

Randy Bennett built Saint Mary's into a WCC fixture, and his move to Arizona State left Mickey McConnell with a near-blank roster. Players back from last season's 27-6 team account for just 26.7% of its minutes. Paulius Murauskas and Dillan Shaw followed Bennett to Arizona State, Mikey Lewis went to Texas and Andrew McKeever to Iowa. The Gaels still chase a fifth straight WCC title and a sixth consecutive NCAA Tournament trip, but last season's ratings, which had them 23rd nationally in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), describe a team that no longer exists.

UIC, in Rob Ehsan's second season, kept far more. 58.6% of last season's minutes return from a 19-16 club that finished third in the MVC and earned an NIT berth. That continuity is the Flames' best argument in a game that is also the first meeting between these schools since the 1980-81 season.

The new Gaels' first test was nearly a stumble. Illinois State, ranked 89th in adjusted net efficiency, led 39-33 at halftime before Saint Mary's escaped 90-85 in overtime. Mantas Juzenas, who played sparingly last season, carried the night and scored five of his points in the extra period.

Paint against pressure

Saint Mary's beat Illinois State by dominating the paint, not the arc. The Gaels took only 25.0% of their shots from three in the opener, 337th nationally. Transfers did the inside work: Thomas Ndong, from California Baptist, came off the bench for 18 points, and Louisville transfer Vangelis Zougris didn't miss a field goal.

UIC's defense is built to disrupt exactly that kind of patient offense. Last season the Flames forced turnovers on 20.9% of opponent possessions, 21st in Division I, and Mekhi Lowery collected four steals in the home opener. The Flames lost their top shot blocker, Abdul Momoh, but added Lucas Scroggins from Saint Peter's to defend the rim. If UIC turns Saint Mary's post entries into live-ball turnovers, the Gaels lose the one thing that worked for them in the opener.

Will UIC's new shooters fire

Last season's UIC rarely shot threes and rarely made them: its 3-point attempt rate ranked 324th and it hit 32.1% from deep. The staff went shopping for range. Benny Gealer made 41% of his threes at Stanford last season, and Asa Thomas made 38.3% at Furman. Gealer opened 0-for-3 from deep, while Ahmad Henderson II went 3-for-7.

That matters because Saint Mary's perimeter defense looked raw in the opener. Illinois State shot 48.1% from three, 333rd in the country after one night. Last season's Gaels defended the arc well, but almost none of those defenders are back. A UIC team that actually takes and makes threes would be a different problem than the one its old profile suggests.

Slow floor, quiet market

Both programs play deliberately. Last season Saint Mary's ranked 364th in pace (possessions per 40 minutes), next to last in the country, and UIC ranked 312th. Fewer possessions mean each turnover and each empty trip weigh more, which is why the steals battle above carries so much.

No spread or total has been posted. The only market evidence is Saint Mary's opener, where it closed as a 6.5-point favorite, won by five in overtime and went over a 148.5 total only because of the extra period. UIC's 96-47 rout of St. Francis (IL) came against an opponent with no Division I rating, so it says little. Both teams come in on 11 days of rest for a 7:00 PM local tip.