East Texas A&M vs Portland prediction: East Texas A&M carries its Norman upset into Portland's track meet

The upset that rewrites the scouting report

East Texas A&M closed as a 30.5-point underdog at Oklahoma on Nov. 2 and walked out with a 68-64 win. It was the program's first-ever victory over a power conference opponent. The Lions had been picked to finish last in the 12-team Southland preseason poll.

Last season's numbers say little about this group. Players on the current roster logged just 6.8% of last season's minutes, so the 2025-26 team that went 11-21 is mostly gone. What Portland will see on film is the Oklahoma game, along with whatever the Lions show at Rice on Nov. 5, the stop before this late tip in Portland.

A pace clash with a caveat

Against the Sooners, East Texas A&M played at 65.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 311th of 349 teams so far. The Lions led 34-25 at halftime and never let the game open up.

Portland went the other way. The Pilots ran 97.5 possessions in their opener, the fastest mark in the country, and beat Willamette 133-89 for a program record in points. Willamette carries no Division I rating, so that night shows what Portland wants to do more than what it can do against a real defense. A steadier baseline is last season's Pilots, who played at 69.7 possessions, 80th nationally. If the Lions can hold the possession count near their Norman level, their formula has a chance to travel.

Fouls and free throws

The Lions' defense comes with a cost. Oklahoma got to the line at a rate of 61.5% (free throw attempts per field goal attempt), and East Texas A&M's defense ranks 327th of 348 in opponent free throw rate. Portland drew fouls at a 60.6% rate in its opener, 30th nationally, and made 77.5% at the line.

East Texas A&M can't win that exchange from the stripe. It made just 53.8% of its own free throws at Oklahoma. The Lions made up for it with second chances: an offensive rebound rate of 41.2%, 74th nationally, gave them extra shots. Both teams also gave the ball away freely in their openers, so whichever side cleans that up gains possessions.

Portland's rebuilt roster and a healthy George

Shantay Legans, in his sixth season, rebuilt around shooting. The Pilots made 30.2% of their threes last season, 345th of 365, and brought in a transfer class aimed at that weakness. Hunter Adam made 39.4% from deep at Davidson last season. Jaxon Olvera averaged 13.7 points at Louisiana.

The bigger addition may be a returner. Timo George had 11 double-digit games in Portland's first 15 last season before a season-ending shoulder injury, and he scored 19 in the opener. James O'Donnell added 18 points and 10 rebounds. Portland hasn't given a 2026-27 status for Riley Parker, Preston Lee, NaVaughn Long or Carlin Briggs, who were all listed out in early March.

For the Lions, Aldridge posted a 79.2% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) at Oklahoma. Alonzo Dodd hit 5 of 9 threes. Dodd shot 28% from deep at App State last season, which makes that night look more like a hot game than his usual level.