UL Monroe vs Arizona State prediction: Randy Bennett's slow-motion Sun Devils test UL Monroe's brand-new roster
Arizona State played its opener at one of the slowest paces in the country, and a fully rebuilt UL Monroe team that likes to run has to live inside that tempo in Tempe.
- Arizona State grinds the clock, attacks the glass and gets to the line; UL Monroe needs its new guards to hit shots early.
- Paulius Murauskas against a UL Monroe frontcourt that let Central Michigan collect too many second chances in its opener.
- No line is posted yet. Both teams failed to cover in their openers; Arizona State closed -19.25 and the game went under.
Bennett pumps the brakes
Randy Bennett spent 25 years at Saint Mary's winning with patience, and his first Arizona State team already looks like his old ones. The Sun Devils played their opener against East Tennessee State at 61.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 339th of 349 Division I teams. That is a sharp turn from last season under Bobby Hurley, when Arizona State ran at 70.3 possessions, 61st nationally.
UL Monroe wants a different game. The Warhawks played their opener at 72 possessions, and they started fast: they led Central Michigan 43-32 at halftime before losing 78-83 at home. A slow, half-court game in Tempe takes away the open floor where a team built on steals does its damage. UL Monroe's steal rate of 19.7% ranked 24th after one game, the best weapon it showed.
Second chances and the foul line
The cleanest edge for Arizona State sits on the glass. UL Monroe grabbed only 55.6% of available defensive rebounds in its opener, 323rd in the country. Arizona State rebounded 42.4% of its own misses, 65th. Against a slow team, each extra possession weighs more.
The free-throw line tilts the same way. Arizona State shot 80.8% from the stripe against East Tennessee State, 44th nationally, and Murauskas went 91.7% on his attempts. UL Monroe made 62.1% of its free throws, 247th, and Dayjaun Anderson shot 40% at the line. If this game stays within reach late, that gap decides it.
Two coaches, two rebuilt rosters
Both programs changed coaches in March, and both rosters changed almost completely. UL Monroe is the extreme case: players on this roster account for 0.1% of last season's minutes. Ryan Cross, hired from UAB, signed 14 newcomers to go with lone returner Cam Campbell. Last season's 4-28 team is a poor guide to this one.
Two UAB transfer guards carried the opener. Quaran McPherson scored 24 points on 4-of-6 shooting from three with a 31.8% usage rate, after averaging 4.4 points at UAB last season. Anderson added 19. Ziyade Ndancky gave the Warhawks a presence inside with 14 points and nine rebounds.
Arizona State returns 9.2% of last season's minutes and leans on transfers, two of whom followed Bennett from Saint Mary's. Murauskas played all 40 minutes of the opener and posted 21 points and nine rebounds, though he missed all five of his threes. Joel Foxwell, from Portland, also played 40 minutes and handed out five assists. Dillan Shaw shot 41.6% from three at Saint Mary's last season, a threat UL Monroe will have to track in a long half-court possession.
Ankles, backs and NCAA clearance
Emmanuel Innocenti is dealing with a sprained ankle. Bennett called it a "rolled ankle, sprained" in early November and put the timeline anywhere from two days to a week, with no update since. Forward Jonathan Griman has been cleared by the NCAA, but Bennett said he had been sidelined by back soreness for about three weeks. Arizona State hasn't said whether either plays Friday.
UL Monroe has no reported injuries, and both teams come in with 11 days of rest.
What week one told the market
No spread or total is posted yet for this one. The openers offer a start. Arizona State closed as a 19.25-point favorite against East Tennessee State, won 75-65 and did not cover, and the game stayed under 145.5. That fits the slower tempo. UL Monroe closed as a 2.5-point home underdog against Central Michigan, did not cover, and that game went over 151.5.
The Warhawks' opener came against a Central Michigan team ranked 277th in last season's adjusted net efficiency. Arizona State will be a clear step up.
Key players
- Paulius Murauskas (Arizona State): Scored 21 with nine rebounds in the opener and shot 91.7% at the line despite going 0-for-5 from three.
- Joel Foxwell (Arizona State): Played all 40 minutes of the opener with 15 points and five assists, posting an offensive rating of 144.8.
- Dillan Shaw (Arizona State): Shot 41.6% from three at Saint Mary's last season and scored 13 in the opener.
- Quaran McPherson (UL Monroe): Led the Warhawks with 24 points on 4-of-6 threes, carrying a 31.8% usage rate.
- Dayjaun Anderson (UL Monroe): Scored 19 in 37 minutes but shot 40% from the free-throw line.
- Ziyade Ndancky (UL Monroe): Posted 14 points, nine rebounds and two blocks in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Arizona State pace | 61.5 | Possessions per 40 minutes in the opener, 339th of 349, a sharp slowdown under Bennett. |
|---|---|---|
| UL Monroe defensive rebound % | 55.6% | Ranked 323rd after one game, against an Arizona State team that rebounded 42.4% of its misses. |
| UL Monroe free throw % | 62.1% | Ranked 247th, against Arizona State's 80.8% at the line. |
| UL Monroe returning minutes | 0.1% | Almost nothing remains from last season's 4-28 team, so its old numbers say little. |
UL Monroe vs Arizona State: quick answers
When is UL Monroe vs Arizona State?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.