Cal Poly vs Idaho prediction: Idaho's rebuilt Vandals face Cal Poly's veteran, full-speed roster

Continuity against a clean slate

Cal Poly returns 82.2% of last season's minutes. Idaho returns 13.8%. That gap frames Friday night in Moscow better than any other number in the matchup.

Mike DeGeorge's third Mustangs team kept four starters and 10 of its top 11 scorers, and the program lost just one player to the transfer portal over the previous two summers, the fewest of any Division I program. The notable exit was guard Peter Bandelj, now at Nevada.

Idaho went the other way. Alex Pribble, in his fourth season, won the Big Sky regular-season and tournament titles, then rebuilt: 12 new players, with Miles Klapper, Seth Joba, Kristian Gonzalez and Jenson the only returners. The Vandals were picked sixth in the Big Sky preseason poll. That makes last season's Idaho profile, a 21-15 record and a 147th-ranked adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), a weak guide. Cal Poly's 14-19 season describes mostly the same players who will take the floor Friday.

Cal Poly wants a track meet

No team in Division I played faster than Cal Poly last season; the Mustangs ranked first in pace. They also ranked sixth in 3-point attempt rate, the share of shots taken from deep. The opener against Cal State San Marcos leaned even harder into it, with 57.4% of attempts coming from three. That is one game against an opponent that reveals little, but the identity is clear.

The cost showed up on defense. Cal Poly allowed 85.0 points per game last season, 361st of 365, and the efficiency numbers back up that raw total: 276th in defensive efficiency. The Mustangs also ranked 349th in block rate, so an Idaho team willing to attack the rim has a path. Idaho played at a moderate pace last season, but that was a different roster, and how this group handles a full-speed opponent is one of the night's open questions.

Turnovers and the glass

Ball security is Cal Poly's recurring flaw. Its turnover rate was 20.0 per 100 possessions last season, 346th nationally, and the opener came in at 31.2.

Idaho is not built to turn that into steals. The Vandals ranked 286th in forced turnover rate last season and 294th after their opener. Where they can make Cal Poly pay is on the boards. Idaho won the rebounding battle in all three of its exhibitions, then cleaned up 83.0% of available defensive rebounds against George Fox, 29th nationally. Western Michigan transfer Hudson Ward grabbed 12 rebounds and Joba added 11. If Idaho ends Cal Poly's possessions after one shot, the Mustangs' pace becomes more noise than advantage.

Who carries each team

For Cal Poly, it starts with Hamad Mousa, who averaged 20.4 points last season and shot 87.8% at the line. He scored a game-high 18 in the opener. Cayden Ward posted his fifth career double-double with 15 points and 11 rebounds, and Guzman Vasilic made 3 of 6 threes.

Idaho's new go-to option is Kase Wynott, whose Washington State season ended with a hip injury. He led the opener with 20 points, hitting 4 of 7 from deep; no current injury news has surfaced on him or any other Vandal. Gonzalez, who lost most of last season to a foot injury, had recovered as of mid-September and scored 14 against George Fox while carrying the team's heaviest usage.

Schedule and series

Cal Poly arrives mid-trip. The Mustangs play at Grand Canyon on Nov. 11 and go on to Montana State on Nov. 15 after this stop, so fresh legs in a fast game are not guaranteed. Idaho has won both meetings over the last three seasons, including an 83-80 win at Cal Poly on Dec. 21, 2025, though almost none of that Idaho team remains.