Stanford vs UNLV prediction: Sebastian Mack and UNLV's offensive glass test a rebuilt Stanford
Both rosters were remade over the summer, and a single opener each hints at one fault line: whether Stanford can finish defensive possessions against a UNLV team that lived on second chances.
- Expect a grinding, possession-by-possession game in which UNLV's offensive rebounding and pressure chip at Stanford's slower, inside-heavy attack.
- Stanford's new frontcourt of Nick Townsend and Aidan Cammann against UNLV's Jeremy Foumena and Tyrin Jones on the defensive glass.
- No line is posted yet. Both teams failed to cover their openers, Stanford as a 14.5-point favorite and UNLV laying 20.75.
UNLV lives on second chances
Last December these programs were separated by one point, a 75-74 UNLV win at Stanford. Almost nobody from that game will decide this one, so start with what each new team did in its opener.
UNLV grabbed 50.0% of its own misses against Northern Arizona, a 23rd-ranked offensive rebound rate (the share of its missed shots it recovers). Stanford's opener showed the matching weakness: the Cardinal secured just 60.6% of Eastern Washington's misses, 288th nationally. Foumena pulled down 11 rebounds for the Rebels and Jones added eight, and that pairing is the clearest physical edge in the building.
The Rebels also forced turnovers on 26.9% of Northern Arizona's possessions, 51st in the country. Stanford gave the ball away on 19.0% of its own trips, 211th. Extra shots from the glass and empty Stanford trips are the formula UNLV will try to repeat.
Mack carries the new Rebels
Josh Pastner, in his second season, returns only 23.3% of last season's minutes, and the departures include Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, who scored 20.7 points per game before leaving for Texas Tech. The replacement scoring arrived fast. Sebastian Mack poured in a career-high 31 points in the opener, hitting four threes, and used 37.5% of UNLV's possessions while on the floor. That is a heavy load for one guard, and Stanford's defensive plan will start with him.
The Rebels may be missing a second scorer. AJ Storr was awaiting a court decision on a fifth year of eligibility as of Oct. 7, allowed to practice but not compete, and no later ruling has surfaced. Jones was expected to be healthy for the opener and played 34 minutes in it. An October preview mentioned unnamed injury and eligibility issues on the roster.
The soft spot is defense. Northern Arizona, ranked 312th in opponent-adjusted net rating, posted a 63.5% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) against UNLV, 323rd nationally, and scored 47 first-half points.
Stanford rebuilt around transfers
Kyle Smith, in his third season, won his 300th career game in the opener, but he did it with a roster that returns just 17.0% of last season's minutes. Ebuka Okorie and his 23.2 points per game are gone. That makes last season's numbers a weak guide, including the final adjusted ratings that ranked Stanford 61st and UNLV 104th.
The new core came through the portal. Townsend, granted temporary eligibility, made 46.3% of his threes at Yale last season and scored the go-ahead layup against Eastern Washington after Stanford trailed 65-64 late. Christian Bliss averaged 16.7 points at Delaware last season but played only 16 minutes in the opener. Freshman Julius Price led the team with 17 points on 7-of-12 shooting.
The opener's profile leaned inside. Stanford made 74.2% of its twos, 15th nationally, but only 25.0% of its threes. UNLV blocked 20.0% of Northern Arizona's two-point tries, 33rd in the country, so the rim will not come as easily. Tallis Toure logged one minute in an Oct. 18 exhibition for an undisclosed reason, and Stanford hasn't said more about his status.
Tempo and the first road trip
Stanford played its opener at 63 possessions per 40 minutes, 326th in pace, while UNLV ran 67.5. A slower game cuts down the number of offensive rebounds and turnovers UNLV can turn into points, which makes tempo Stanford's best lever.
This is Stanford's first road game, a 9:00 PM ET Friday tip on CBS Sports Network. Both teams come in rested, Stanford with 11 days off and UNLV with 10. The early market signals split on the total: Stanford's opener stayed under 154.5, while UNLV's went over 153.5 behind that porous first half.
Key players
- Nick Townsend (Stanford): Shot 83.3% from the field with five assists in the opener after making 46.3% of his threes at Yale last season.
- Julius Price (Stanford): Led Stanford with 17 points and a 23.2% usage rate in his debut.
- Christian Bliss (Stanford): Averaged 16.7 points at Delaware last season but managed four points in 16 minutes in the opener.
- Aidan Cammann (Stanford): Stanford's top returner scored 13 points with two blocks in 27 minutes.
- Sebastian Mack (UNLV): Scored a career-high 31 points on a 37.5% usage rate in the opener.
- Jeremy Foumena (UNLV): Posted 13 points and 11 rebounds in 25 minutes against Northern Arizona.
- Tyrin Jones (UNLV): Added 12 points, eight rebounds and two blocks after blocking 2.2 shots per game last season.
- Dontrez Williams (UNLV): Scored 12 points without missing a field goal in 24 minutes.
Numbers that matter
| UNLV offensive rebound rate | 50.0% | Ranked 23rd nationally in the opener and points straight at Stanford's biggest weakness. |
|---|---|---|
| Stanford defensive rebound rate | 60.6% | Ranked 288th, the number most likely to decide how many shots UNLV gets. |
| Mack usage rate | 37.5% | UNLV's offense runs through one guard, especially while Storr's eligibility is unresolved. |
| Stanford returning minutes | 17.0% | So little of last season's roster remains that last season's team numbers say little. |
| UNLV opponent effective FG% | 63.5% | Ranked 323rd against a weak opponent, a warning sign for the Rebels' defense. |
Stanford vs UNLV: quick answers
When is Stanford vs UNLV?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.