Mississippi Valley State vs Oregon State prediction: Mississippi Valley State's road gauntlet hits Corvallis with nobody back
A Delta Devils roster rebuilt from zero, playing deep into a long road swing, faces an Oregon State team that scored 102 points in its opener and lived at the free throw line.
- Oregon State's transfer-built rotation should control a Mississippi Valley State team that returns no minutes and arrives in the middle of a long road swing.
- Expect plenty of Oregon State trips to the line against a Delta Devils defense that ranked 363rd of 365 in opponent free throw rate last season.
- No spread or total is posted yet; Oregon State closed -17.5 against Weber State and covered in a 102-61 win that went over 159.5.
Starting over, far from home
Mississippi Valley State has no team to build on. The Delta Devils return 0.0% of last season's minutes, a clean break from a 3-30 team that finished last of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) at -35.9. Their top scorer from that team, Michael James, is now at Alabama State.
Mike Davis, a Memphis assistant from 2024 to 2026, was named the program's head coach on May 1. His first schedule is brutal: 14 straight road games to open, with no home date until Jan. 9. The swing runs through Oklahoma on Nov. 6, Washington on Nov. 9 and Oregon on Nov. 11 before the Delta Devils land in Corvallis. With a rebuilt roster, last season's team numbers are a weak guide to who they are now. The one transfer with a Division I line, forward Tarique Foster, averaged 5.8 points in 20.3 minutes at UAlbany.
Joyner's new Beavers
Oregon State is rebuilt too, just with more to show for it. Players back from last season account for only 16.8% of the team's minutes, and new coach Justin Joyner, a Michigan assistant on the Wolverines' 2026 national title team, is using a five-game home stretch to sort out a rotation.
The opener was a strong first draft. The Beavers led Weber State 43-35 at halftime and pulled away for a 102-61 win. Buffalo transfer Daniel Freitag scored 23 points with seven rebounds and three steals, and Fresno State transfer DeShawn Gory added 17. Josiah Lake II, the lone major returner and a first-team All-WCC pick, ran the offense with five assists. Center Xavion Staton grabbed 13 rebounds against a Weber State side ranked 195th in adjusted net efficiency.
The free throw line decides the margin
Oregon State attacks the rim and gets fouled. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 43.1% last season, 16th in the country, and it reached 52.3% against Weber State. The Beavers also convert: they ranked 26th nationally in free throw percentage last season.
Mississippi Valley State's defense last season handed out free throws at a rate few teams matched, allowing a 50.1% opponent free throw rate, 363rd of 365. Different players will wear the jerseys, and a first-year staff may change the defensive approach. Still, an aggressive Oregon State backcourt against an inexperienced, newly assembled defense points toward a steady parade to the line.
Tempo and empty trips
Joyner's team played fast in its debut, at 80.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 30th in the country. That is a sharp turn from last season's Beavers, who ranked 275th in pace. One game proves little, but more possessions give the deeper, more talented side more chances to stretch a lead.
Ball security was Mississippi Valley State's other problem last season. The Delta Devils turned it over on 22.1% of possessions, 359th nationally, and ranked 351st in defensive rebound rate. Oregon State did not force many turnovers against Weber State, ranking 328th in forced turnover rate, so any giveaways from a new Delta Devils backcourt would likely come from their own mistakes rather than pressure.
What to watch
- Whistle count: how often Freitag and Gory get to the line early.
- Legs: how a Delta Devils roster handles this game coming off the Nov. 11 trip to Oregon.
- Rotation: whether Joyner tightens or widens his rotation in the final stretch of the home opening run.
Key players
- Daniel Freitag (Oregon State): Scored 23 points with a 30.9% usage rate in the opener after averaging 19.8 points at Buffalo last season.
- Josiah Lake II (Oregon State): The first-team All-WCC returner averaged 13.1 points and shot 38.1% from three last season, then dished five assists against Weber State.
- DeShawn Gory (Oregon State): Posted 17 points and six rebounds in his Oregon State debut after averaging 13.7 points at Fresno State last season.
- Xavion Staton (Oregon State): Controlled the paint in the opener with 13 rebounds and two blocks.
- Tarique Foster (Mississippi Valley State): Averaged 5.8 points and shot 33.3% from three on 90 attempts at UAlbany last season.
Numbers that matter
| MVSU returning minutes | 0.0% | None of last season's 3-30 minutes return, so the Delta Devils' old team numbers say little about this roster. |
|---|---|---|
| MVSU opponent FT rate, last season | 50.1% | Ranked 363rd of 365, a weakness that lines up with Oregon State's foul-drawing attack. |
| Oregon State FT rate, last season | 43.1% | 16th nationally, and the Beavers pushed it to 52.3% in their opener. |
| Oregon State pace, opener | 80.5 | A big jump from last season's 275th-ranked tempo under a new coach. |
| MVSU turnover rate, last season | 22.1% | Ranked 359th, a habit a brand-new backcourt will need to break. |
Mississippi Valley State vs Oregon State: quick answers
When is Mississippi Valley State vs Oregon State?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET.