Chicago State vs San Diego prediction: San Diego's rebuilt Toreros test a Chicago State defense Texas shredded
Two rosters assembled almost entirely from transfers get a first honest look at each other, and the Cougars' interior defense is where the questions start.
- San Diego's bigger, transfer-heavy rotation should work inside against a Chicago State defense that Texas carved for 109 points in the opener.
- Sekou Konneh, who scored 15 on 63.6% shooting in the opener, against a Cougars team that grabbed just 40.7% of defensive rebounds at Texas.
- No line is posted yet. Chicago State closed as a 41.25-point underdog at Texas and failed to cover in a 109-59 loss.
Two rosters built from scratch
Neither team on the floor at Jenny Craig Pavilion on Friday night looks much like the one that finished last season. San Diego returns just 4.3% of last season's minutes, and Chicago State brings back 7.7%. That turns last season's team numbers into background noise and makes this an early read on two rotations assembled through the portal.
The Toreros, 12-21 last season, went shopping for scorers. Marqui Worthy Jr. averaged 16.2 points at UC Riverside last season, and Davion Hill put up 14.0 per game at Ball State. Chicago State, which went 7-25 last season, rebuilt around guards Mike Price (Cal State Bakersfield) and Will Lovings-Watts plus forward Bryan Akanmu from Wagner. Malek Robinson is the only returner who played real minutes.
What Texas exposed
The Cougars opened Nov. 2 at No. 7 Texas and lost 109-59. Texas raced to a 26-8 lead in the first eight minutes and led 56-30 at halftime.
The damage came at the rim and on the glass. Texas posted a 72.7% effective field goal percentage (a shooting mark that counts threes as 1.5 makes), the worst figure any Division I defense has allowed so far. Chicago State also secured only 40.7% of Texas's misses, ranking 346th of 348.
San Diego is not Texas. Still, last season's final adjusted net ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had the Toreros 226th and the Cougars 337th. Those reflect old rosters, but the gap points the same direction as the opener.
San Diego plays inside out
San Diego beat Biola 79-62 in its opener, an opponent that offers little measuring value. The shape of that win still matters. The Toreros shot 58.1% inside the arc, and threes made up only 25.9% of their attempts, which ranks 336th, among the lowest rates in the country.
Konneh led the way with 15 points, and Dusty Stromer added 12 with six rebounds. San Diego also has the longer rotation by minutes-weighted height, 77.6 inches to 76.4. A two-point-heavy offense with size against a defense that just conceded the paint is the matchup most likely to decide the margin.
Where the Cougars can push back
Chicago State's offense runs through its new backcourt. Lovings-Watts scored 13 points at Texas, and Price handed out five assists while carrying a 28.9% usage rate, the share of possessions he finished while on the floor.
The Cougars' calling card last season was pressure: they forced turnovers on 20.5% of opponent possessions, 31st nationally. With so little of that roster back, that number is a weak guide, though Robinson, the lone holdover, averaged 1.8 steals last season. Chicago State also shot 50.0% at the line in the opener, a problem if this stays closer than expected.
What to watch
- Early glass: whether Chicago State can end San Diego possessions with one shot after Texas feasted on second chances.
- Worthy's role: the UC Riverside transfer is San Diego's most productive arrival on last season's numbers.
- Rest: both teams come in with 11 days off since their openers, so neither has a schedule edge.
- Tip: 9:30 PM ET Friday on ESPN+, with no spread or total posted as of Wednesday.
Key players
- Sekou Konneh (San Diego): Led the opener with 15 points on 63.6% shooting and a team-high 29.7% usage rate.
- Dusty Stromer (San Diego): The Grand Canyon transfer filled the box against Biola with 12 points, six rebounds and three steals.
- Davion Hill (San Diego): Averaged 14.0 points at Ball State last season and added nine points and four assists in the opener.
- Marqui Worthy Jr. (San Diego): Started all 31 games at UC Riverside last season, averaging 16.2 points in 34.9 minutes.
- Will Lovings-Watts (Chicago State): Scored 13 points at Texas with an offensive rating of 117.9, the best among the Cougars' regulars.
- Mike Price (Chicago State): The Cal State Bakersfield transfer posted 12 points and five assists at Texas on a 28.9% usage rate.
- Bryan Akanmu (Chicago State): Averaged 6.2 points and 3.9 rebounds at Wagner last season and played 22 minutes off the bench at Texas.
- Malek Robinson (Chicago State): The lone notable returner averaged 1.8 steals last season and had two in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| San Diego returning minutes | 4.3% | Almost nothing carries over from last season's 12-21 team, so its old numbers say little. |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago State defensive rebound % | 40.7% | Ranks 346th of 348 after Texas controlled the glass in a 50-point win. |
| Opponent effective FG% vs. Chicago State | 72.7% | The worst mark any Division I defense has allowed after one game. |
| San Diego 2-point % | 58.1% | The Toreros lean inside, with threes making up just 25.9% of their shots. |
| Chicago State spread at Texas | 41.25 | The Cougars closed as a huge underdog on Nov. 2 and still failed to cover. |
Chicago State vs San Diego: quick answers
When is Chicago State vs San Diego?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET.