Xavier vs Mississippi State prediction: Xavier's ball hawks test Josh Hubbard's grip on Mississippi State
Two rebuilt rosters meet a high-major opponent for the first time, and Xavier's opening-night pressure is aimed at a Bulldogs backcourt that gave the ball away too often.
- Expect a fast, scrappy game: Xavier's pressure and size against Mississippi State's hot perimeter shooting and frequent trips to the foul line.
- Josh Hubbard against Chance Westry and Tru Washington, who had five and four steals in Xavier's opener.
- No line yet in our feed. Xavier's opener closed at a 158.5 total and went under; Mississippi State's closed at 156.5 and went over.
Pressure on the Bulldogs' ball
Both teams spent the summer rebuilding almost from scratch, and both opened by rolling past overmatched opponents. The Greenbrier Tip-Off is the first time either new roster faces a high-major team. The likeliest tiebreaker is the ball itself.
Xavier's opener against Mount St. Mary's looked like a pressing clinic. The Musketeers forced turnovers on 23.8% of possessions, 90th of 348, and their steal rate ranks 44th. Chance Westry, a transfer from UAB, came off the bench for 17 points and five steals. Tru Washington, in from Miami, added four steals of his own.
Mississippi State is vulnerable to exactly that. The Bulldogs turned it over on 19.7% of their possessions against Tennessee Tech, 233rd nationally. Josh Hubbard is the pressure point. He scored 25 with nine assists in the opener, and last season his usage rate (the share of team possessions he finished) was 32.7%. Xavier has its own ball-security problem, though, giving it away at a rate that ranks 260th.
A soft middle in Starkville's defense
The Bulldogs scored freely but defended poorly. Tennessee Tech made 67.6% of its two-point shots, 323rd of 348, and still scored 88 points. That came from a team ranked 309th in adjusted net efficiency.
Xavier has the size to attack that interior. Its minutes-weighted average height is 79.1 inches to Mississippi State's 76.9. The Musketeers also chased their own misses, rebounding 47.5% of their missed shots in the opener. Jovan Milicevic, the top returner from last season, scored 14 and blocked two shots.
Mississippi State answers by getting to the line. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 53.3%, 51st nationally. That matters against a Xavier team that made just 61.5% of its own free throws in the opener.
Hot hands against a locked perimeter
Mississippi State's opener was a shooting showcase: an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 68.3%, 13th in the country. King Grace scored 23 off the bench, and RJ Johnson arrives from Kennesaw State after hitting 42.3% of his threes last season.
Xavier held Mount St. Mary's to 11.5% from deep, though against a much weaker opponent. Its own shooting should come around. Ruben Dominguez went 2 of 8 in the opener, but he made 40% of his threes on 215 attempts at Texas A&M last season.
The pace should be quick. Xavier played at 80 possessions per 40 minutes, 35th nationally, so the total will likely open high once a line posts.
Two rosters built in one summer
Last season's numbers say little here. Xavier returns 13.1% of last season's minutes and Mississippi State returns 21.0%. The Musketeers went 15-18 last season and the Bulldogs 13-19, but neither team looks much like those versions.
Richard Pitino is in his second season at Xavier, where expectations are high. Chris Jans, in his fifth season, calls this the best group of young men he has coached, even with the Bulldogs picked 15th in the SEC. His exhibition loss to Memphis included second-half struggles he noted afterward. Both teams get 11 days of rest before tipoff on a neutral floor.
Who suits up for Xavier
Freshman forward Asher Elson was out with a foot injury. As of Oct. 28, Pitino said he might return for the second or third game, and there has been no update since. Freshman guard Kalek House, the expected backup point guard, has an unsettled status after conflicting reports in late October.
Filip Borovicanin's eligibility rests on litigation over an Ohio executive order. The Ohio Supreme Court kept him eligible around Oct. 30, and he played against Mount St. Mary's, finishing with 8 points and 6 assists. We found no reliable injury reports for Mississippi State.
Key players
- Chance Westry (Xavier): Scored 17 points with five steals off the bench in the opener after averaging 15.5 points at UAB last season.
- Jovan Milicevic (Xavier): Hit 3 of 5 threes in the opener and shot 42.9% from deep last season.
- Ruben Dominguez (Xavier): Started 2 of 8 from three but made 40% of his threes at Texas A&M last season.
- Filip Borovicanin (Xavier): Posted 8 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists in the opener while his eligibility case continues.
- Josh Hubbard (Mississippi State): Opened with 25 points and nine assists after averaging 22.1 points last season.
- King Grace (Mississippi State): Scored 23 off the bench with a 30.8% usage rate in the opener.
- RJ Johnson (Mississippi State): Made 3 of 4 threes in the opener after shooting 42.3% from deep last season.
- Thomas Bassong (Mississippi State): Scored 14 points on 71.4% shooting in his first start.
Numbers that matter
| Xavier forced turnover rate | 23.8% | Ranks 90th and sets up the central fight with Mississippi State's ball handlers. |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State turnover rate | 19.7% | Ranks 233rd, a giveaway habit Xavier's guards are built to exploit. |
| Mississippi State opponent 2-point % | 67.6% | Ranks 323rd of 348, an opening for Xavier's taller frontcourt. |
| Mississippi State free throw rate | 53.3% | Ranks 51st; the Bulldogs' best way to punish Xavier's aggressive defense. |
| Xavier returning minutes | 13.1% | Very little of last season's Xavier team remains, so last season's numbers are a weak guide. |
Xavier vs Mississippi State: quick answers
When is Xavier vs Mississippi State?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.