Wright State vs Samford prediction: Wright State's proven core tests Cooper Noard's rebuilt Samford
Both programs turned over most of last season's roster, but the Horizon League favorite brings back the two players who matter most, and Samford is betting on a Cornell transfer.
- Wright State's returning duo and offensive rebounding should drive the game, while Samford leans on ball security and its home floor.
- Cooper Noard against Wright State's perimeter: he averaged 18.2 points at Cornell last season and scored 30 at Auburn.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Wright State covered as a 12.25-point favorite against Air Force and cleared a 163.5 total.
Two rebuilds, one proven core
Neither of these rosters looks much like last season's. Wright State returns 31.6% of last season's minutes and Samford returns 35.6%, so last season's team numbers are a weak guide here. The real question is which roster has players who already know how to win.
Wright State has the stronger answer. The Raiders went 23-12 last season and won the Horizon League regular-season and tournament titles. They are the league's preseason favorite, Clint Sargent has an extension through 2031, and two key pieces are back. Kellen Pickett, the Horizon's Preseason Player of the Year, averaged 8.5 points and 5.4 rebounds last season. Dominic Pangonis started 28 of 34 games, and he opened this season by hitting 6 of 7 threes for 30 points against Air Force.
Samford is further from home. The Bulldogs went 18-14 in Lennie Acuff's first season and brought back just two starters, Cade Norris and Isaiah Campbell-Finch. Gone is Jadin Booth, who averaged 21.6 points. The replacement scorer is Cooper Noard, a Cornell transfer who shot 37.6% from three last season. He was quiet against Berry with 5 points, but he scored 30 with ten rebounds in Samford's 80-68 exhibition loss at Auburn.
Shot blockers at both rims
Both openers produced elite block rates, which measure blocks per opponent two-point attempt. Samford's 29.5% ranks 4th nationally and Wright State's 28.6% ranks 6th.
The Raiders' version came largely from a freshman. Noah Lewis came off the bench against Air Force and blocked 6 shots in 21 minutes, while Pickett added three more. For Samford, Will Shaver had 4 blocks along with 17 points. Shaver also carried a 38.9% usage rate, meaning the offense ran through him on a big share of his possessions. He played only 9.6 minutes a game last season, so this was a new role for him.
If both teams protect the rim like that, the game tilts toward the perimeter. That gives Pangonis and Noard even more weight.
Second chances against no turnovers
The possession battle sets up as a clear contrast in styles. Wright State grabbed 50.0% of its own misses against Air Force, 23rd nationally. Samford's defensive rebounding rate of 74.4% ranks 122nd. The Bulldogs were 12th on the defensive glass last season, but with this much roster turnover that number may not hold.
Samford chases almost nothing on its own misses. Its offensive rebound rate of 4.3% ranks 347th, and last season it sat 335th, so the low number looks like design. The Bulldogs make up for it by protecting the ball. Their turnover rate, giveaways per 100 possessions, was 10.3% against Berry, 17th nationally, and ranked 9th last season. Wright State forced turnovers at 17.6% in its opener, 205th, and does not look built to speed Samford up.
Wright State's own ball security is the soft spot to watch. Its 18.7% turnover rate ranks 203rd. Transfer point guard Chadlyn Traylor handed out 7 assists against Air Force but made just 3 of 8 shots.
Read the openers carefully
The early numbers come from soft opponents. Berry has no adjusted rating in the packet, and Air Force ranked 348th in last season's adjusted net efficiency. Air Force ranked 348th in last season's adjusted net efficiency, which measures points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents.
Last season's final adjusted ratings favor Wright State. The Raiders finished 141st and Samford finished 214th. Both teams played at the same tempo last season, 68.5 possessions per 40 minutes. Wright State pushed to 74.5 in its opener and scored 60 first-half points.
Both teams will have 11 days of rest, and Samford gets the Pete Hanna Center crowd.
Key players
- Dominic Pangonis (Wright State): He made 9 of 10 shots for 30 points against Air Force after shooting 38.5% from three last season.
- Kellen Pickett (Wright State): He opened with 13 points and 3 blocks after averaging 8.5 points last season.
- C.J. O'Hara (Wright State): He averaged 14.1 points at Green Bay last season but made just 2 of 9 shots in his debut.
- Noah Lewis (Wright State): He made 7 of 8 shots and blocked 6 in 21 minutes against Air Force.
- Cooper Noard (Samford): He averaged 18.2 points at Cornell last season and scored 30 in the Auburn exhibition.
- Cade Norris (Samford): He shot 40.4% from three last season and scored 13 without a miss against Berry.
- Will Shaver (Samford): He posted 17 points and 4 blocks against Berry on a 38.9% usage rate.
Numbers that matter
| Wright State returning minutes | 31.6% | The Raiders rebuilt too, but kept Pangonis and Pickett, their two most important players. |
|---|---|---|
| Wright State offensive rebound rate | 50.0% | That ranked 23rd and gives the Raiders second chances against a Samford team that does not crash the glass. |
| Samford offensive rebound rate | 4.3% | It ranks 347th, in line with last season's 335th, so the Bulldogs rarely get extra possessions. |
| Samford turnover rate, last season | 13.3% | It ranked 9th nationally, and the Bulldogs need that ball security to make up for few second chances. |
| Samford block rate | 29.5% | It ranks 4th, just ahead of Wright State at 6th, so points at the rim could be scarce. |
Wright State vs Samford: quick answers
When is Wright State vs Samford?
Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.