Western Michigan vs Purdue Fort Wayne prediction: Western Michigan's turnover problem runs into Purdue Fort Wayne's pressure
A Broncos roster that returns no minutes from last season coughed it up all night at Old Dominion, and Jon Coffman's Mastodons have made a living on forcing exactly that.
- Expect a scrappy, possession-by-possession game between two rebuilt rosters, with Purdue Fort Wayne's ball pressure testing a Western Michigan offense still finding itself.
- Jaylen Washington Jr. against the Mastodons' hands: he must stabilize a Broncos offense that turned it over on 25.8% of possessions in its opener.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Western Michigan closed as a 1.5-point favorite at Old Dominion, lost, and the game stayed well under 155.5.
A turnover problem meets pressure
Western Michigan's season opener at Old Dominion on Nov. 2 came down to the basketball slipping away. The Broncos turned it over on 25.8% of their possessions (turnover rate, giveaways per 100 possessions), which ranks 278th of 303 teams to have played. They scored 49 points, and Old Dominion held them to 12 over the final 15 minutes after a 13-0 Western Michigan run to open the second half had briefly made a game of it.
That is a bad profile to carry into Fort Wayne. Last season the Mastodons forced turnovers on 19.9% of opponent possessions, 45th in the country, and their steal rate ranked 30th. Coffman, now in his 13th season, has the Mastodons coming off a year when that pressure was a strength, though the roster has turned over heavily.
The caveat is real: Purdue Fort Wayne returns only 28.2% of last season's minutes, and leading scorer Corey Hadnot II is now at Houston. Whether the new group defends with the same edge is the first thing to learn when it opens at Duquesne on Tuesday.
Two rosters built from scratch
Western Michigan's rebuild is total. First-year coach Kahil Fennell, hired in March after Dwayne Stephens was fired, has no one back who played a minute for the Broncos last season. Every starter from the opener is new.
The transfer résumés are better than the debut. Rob Lee Jr. averaged 16.0 points at Lamar last season but went 0-for-4 from three against Old Dominion. Tanner Hayhurst shot 46.1% from deep at Southern Utah last season and took only three threes in 34 minutes. Washington, named to the MAC preview list by the league's coaches and student-athletes, ran the offense with five assists and two steals. Augustinas Kiudulas led the team with 12 points but used a huge share of possessions inefficiently.
Purdue Fort Wayne has more continuity in the backcourt. DeAndre Craig Jr. started all 32 games last season, averaging 14.0 points and hitting 38.2% of his threes, and he is the obvious first option. Anthony Isaac arrives from Manhattan with a rebounder's line, and Ashton Williamson started 25 games at FIU.
Tempo and the shape of the game
The opener at Old Dominion was a crawl: 62 possessions, 290th in pace among teams that have played. That isn't how Western Michigan played last season, when it ran 69.1 possessions per 40 minutes. Purdue Fort Wayne ran at 69.5 last season, 89th nationally, and launched threes freely.
A new coach, a new roster and a sloppy night make it hard to know which pace is real for the Broncos. If Purdue Fort Wayne's pressure produces live-ball turnovers, the game speeds up on the home team's terms.
The glass may push back. The Mastodons grabbed just 23.6% of their own misses last season, 353rd of 365, and Western Michigan's minutes-weighted lineup averages 76.0 inches against 74.4 for Purdue Fort Wayne. Second chances should favor the visitors.
Schedule and setting
Western Michigan will have had 10 days off since the Old Dominion loss, plenty of practice time for a staff still installing its system. No Broncos injuries were listed as of Oct. 30.
Purdue Fort Wayne, picked eighth in the Horizon League, will have one regular-season game behind it before hosting at Memorial Coliseum. Coffman is 215-170 at the school.
The last meeting, exactly a year earlier in Kalamazoo, went to Western Michigan 83-71. Almost none of those players remain for the Broncos, so the result says little about Thursday.
Key players
- Jaylen Washington Jr. (Western Michigan): Handed out five assists with two steals in the opener after posting a 125.8 offensive rating at UT Rio Grande Valley last season.
- Rob Lee Jr. (Western Michigan): Averaged 16.0 points at Lamar last season but went 0-for-4 from three in his Broncos debut.
- Tanner Hayhurst (Western Michigan): Shot 46.1% from three at Southern Utah last season and played 34 minutes in the opener.
- Augustinas Kiudulas (Western Michigan): Led the Broncos with 12 points at Old Dominion on a 43.8% usage rate.
- DeAndre Craig Jr. (Purdue Fort Wayne): The top returner averaged 14.0 points and shot 38.2% from three last season.
- Anthony Isaac (Purdue Fort Wayne): Pulled down 7.2 rebounds per game at Manhattan last season, help for a team that struggled on the glass.
- Ashton Williamson (Purdue Fort Wayne): Started 25 games at FIU last season, averaging 7.7 points and 2.5 assists.
Numbers that matter
| WMU turnover rate, opener | 25.8% | Ranks 278th of 303 and drove the 49-point night at Old Dominion. |
|---|---|---|
| PFW forced turnover rate, last season | 19.9% | 45th nationally, the defensive identity Coffman's teams bring. |
| WMU returning minutes | 0.0% | Every Bronco is new, so last season's team numbers say little. |
| PFW returning minutes | 28.2% | Craig is back, but the Mastodons' top scorer from last season is not. |
| PFW offensive rebound %, last season | 23.6% | 353rd of 365, a weakness a taller Western Michigan lineup can target. |
Western Michigan vs Purdue Fort Wayne: quick answers
When is Western Michigan vs Purdue Fort Wayne?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.