Southern vs Minnesota prediction: Southern's thieves test a Minnesota offense learning to live without Tyson
A SWAC roster rebuilt almost entirely through transfers brings a ball-hawking defense to Williams Arena, where the Gophers just passed North Dakota into oblivion.
- Minnesota should control the possession battle at home, but Southern's pressure can make it messy if the Gophers loosen their grip on the ball.
- Southern's steal-happy guards against a Minnesota offense that assisted on 85.3% of its made baskets in the opener.
- No line is posted yet. Both teams covered their openers, Southern as a 25.5-point underdog at SMU, and both went under.
Southern's hands, Minnesota's passing
The most interesting thing Southern did in its 85-72 loss at SMU had nothing to do with the scoreboard. The Jaguars forced turnovers on 28.4% of SMU's possessions (turnover rate is giveaways per 100 possessions), 29th of 303 teams with a game played. Their steal rate of 23.0% ranked 5th. Kevin Johnson, in his fourth season, kept that disruptive identity even though almost none of last season's players are back.
Minnesota's opener pointed the other way. The Gophers turned it over on just 13.2% of their possessions, 53rd nationally, and assisted on 85.3% of their made field goals, 2nd in the country. That is a team moving the ball on purpose. If Southern can turn that passing into live-ball steals and run, it keeps the margin manageable. If the Gophers keep making the extra pass without coughing it up, Southern's own loose handle becomes the bigger issue: the Jaguars gave it away on 24.3% of their trips at SMU, 259th.
Southern vs Minnesota: quick answers
When is Southern vs Minnesota?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.