Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M prediction: PJ Haggerty's rebuilt Aggies face Oklahoma State's ball-hawking defense

Haggerty takes the keys

Bucky McMillan's second Texas A&M team is close to a new program. Players on this roster account for just 14.1% of last season's minutes, so last year's Aggie numbers say little about who takes the floor at Reed Arena on Thursday night.

The new centerpiece is PJ Haggerty, who scored 23.4 points a game at Kansas State last season. His usage rate, the share of team possessions he finished while on the floor, was 32.5%. That is a lead guard who will have the ball constantly.

Around him, McMillan collected shooting. Jordan Pope hit 86 threes at Texas last season, and Lukas Walls made 45.5% of his threes at Radford. Mackenzie Mgbako, who played only seven games last season, was fully cleared over the summer after a foot injury, and Jalen Shelley said he was cleared around the start of August after surgery. The Aggies open against Alabama State on Nov. 3, so this should be their second real game.

Cowboys feast on mistakes

Oklahoma State's defense was the story of its 91-60 opener against Incarnate Word, a team ranked 264th in last season's adjusted net efficiency. The Cowboys forced turnovers on 29.6% of possessions, 21st nationally among teams with a game played, and led 54-17 at halftime.

Jacob Walker, a transfer from Sam Houston, did the most damage: eight assists and four steals in 22 minutes. The opener also answered a concern Steve Lutz raised after an exhibition loss to Wisconsin, when he said, "I thought it was disappointing the way we took care of the basketball." One game against a weak opponent proves little, but ball pressure against a backcourt with no shared history is a fair test of A&M's new pieces.

Oklahoma State's thin backcourt

The Cowboys are rebuilt too, with 32.1% of last season's minutes back. Their two most important returners may not be available. Parsa Fallah, who is playing on a temporary restraining order in an eligibility case, won't play until at least sometime in December as he recovers from a February ACL tear.

Point guard Kanye Clary was day to day with a groin injury as of Lutz's Oct. 29 press conference, and Lutz said rushing back risked a setback. Luka Bogavac, a transfer from North Carolina, missed the Wisconsin exhibition for reasons Lutz didn't give. No newer update on either has surfaced, so both are unsettled.

The scoring load leans on Jordan Burks, who averaged 13.3 points at UCF last season and scored 11 in just 17 minutes in the opener.

A whistle problem in College Station

McMillan's message after a 94-88 exhibition loss to SMU was blunt: "What we've got to do is stop fouling. You can't give a team 43 points at the free throw line."

That is a bad habit to carry into this game. Oklahoma State drew free throws at a 44.6% rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) against Incarnate Word, and last season its 39.4% rate ranked 68th in the country. If A&M's new rotation keeps reaching, the Cowboys have a path to points without having to shoot well.

A rematch with little carryover

Oklahoma State won the first leg of this home-and-home 87-63 last November in Stillwater, and this game closes the series. Very few players from that night remain on either roster.

Last season's final adjusted ratings, points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents, put A&M 44th and Oklahoma State 80th in net efficiency. With rosters this new, treat that gap as a loose starting point. The Cowboys played at the 8th-fastest pace in the country last season, though their opener was played at a more moderate tempo. Oklahoma State is 1-0 against the spread, and its first game went under.