New Mexico State vs UTEP prediction: Can UTEP fix its interior defense? Miners face New Mexico State's new forwards

UTEP's paint problem

UTEP's first year in the Mountain West starts with old business: the Battle of I-10, twice in eight days. The Miners host New Mexico State at the Don Haskins Center on Nov. 12, then visit the Pan American Center on Nov. 19. Both rosters are close to brand new, so the one game of real evidence matters more than usual.

That evidence is UTEP's opener, an 84-76 loss to Northern Kentucky on a neutral floor. The Norse made 72.4% of their two-point shots, which ranks 296th of 303 teams so far. They also lived at the line. UTEP's opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 66.0%, 292nd nationally.

The perimeter told the opposite story. Northern Kentucky hit just 19.0% of its threes, and a number that low tends to drift back up. If the interior stays this open and the threes start falling, the margin gets worse.

Twelve new Aggies

New Mexico State added 12 newcomers under Jason Hooten, now in his fourth year, and returns only 21.5% of last season's minutes. Last season's 16-16 team held opponents to 31.1% from three, 40th nationally, but few of the players behind that number are still around. Treat it as a weak guide.

The new frontcourt fits UTEP's weak spot. Gabe Warren started all 33 games at Holy Cross last season. Mark Lavrenov pulled down 7.0 rebounds a game at Sacramento State and made 82.4% of his free throws, the kind of big who cashes in on a defense that fouls. Stephon Payne, from Seton Hall, adds rim protection.

The scoring load figures to fall on DJ Dudley, a Preseason All-Conference honoree who averaged 13.8 points at Louisiana Tech last season. Jermaine Washington shot 36.7% from three at San José State. The Aggies were picked sixth in the Conference USA coaches poll and open Tuesday against Western New Mexico. This trip to El Paso comes eight days after their opener at home against Western New Mexico.

Clean hands, cold shooting

UTEP returns 0.0% of last season's minutes. Joe Golding, in his sixth year, built a 15-man roster that includes eight Division I transfers.

The opener showed one clear strength. The Miners turned it over on 9.7% of possessions, ninth in the country, a real edge in a game between two teams still learning each other.

The shooting did not keep up. UTEP's effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) was 44.3%, 236th, and the Miners made 58.3% of their free throws. Freshman Youssouf Traore was the bright spot with 18 points. Leif Moeller shot 27.3% from the floor in the opener, but he made 36.6% of his threes at Evansville last season.

Rivalry, rest and the market

UTEP will have had 10 days off by the time the Aggies arrive, time enough to work on the defensive breakdowns from the opener. New Mexico State won the last meeting 67-63 in Las Cruces in February. With a rematch a week away, the second game should come with real tape from the first.

No spread or total has been posted. The only market read is UTEP's opener: the Miners closed as 3.75-point favorites, lost outright, and the game went over a 150.5 total. The result fits the opener's pattern of a struggling offense paired with a defense that gave up easy points.