Monmouth vs Quinnipiac prediction: Jakai Sanders and Monmouth's transfers test a rebuilt Quinnipiac in Hamden

Two programs starting over

Both rosters have turned over heavily since last season, and Thursday night's game is in Hamden. Monmouth brings back players who logged 30.5% of last season's minutes. Quinnipiac returns just 25.8%, after losing three underclassmen starters to the transfer portal and adding eight newcomers.

That makes last season's numbers a weak guide. Monmouth finished 172nd of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed, adjusted for opponents), and Quinnipiac finished 215th. Those ratings describe teams that no longer exist.

Expectations point the other way. Quinnipiac enters Tom Pecora's fourth season as the preseason favorite in the Metro Conference. Monmouth, under King Rice in his 16th season, was picked fifth in the CAA. The Bobcats also hold the most recent result: an 85-75 win at Monmouth on Dec. 17, 2025.

Monmouth's guards carry the load

The Hawks rebuilt around transfers in the backcourt, and the opener at St. John's showed why. Jakai Sanders, a junior from Le Moyne, scored 17 points and made 4 of 5 threes. Madison Durr, in from UNC Wilmington, added 15 off the bench with a team-high offensive rating of 105.6.

Monmouth also showed resolve. Down 45-29 at halftime, the Hawks won the second half by a point and cut the margin to 12 with nine minutes left.

Ball security is the worry. Monmouth turned it over on 24.3% of its possessions, 259th in Division I, a rate that would sink it against anyone. Lureon Walker, a 6-4 redshirt senior from North Carolina A&T, started the opener and could steady things; he averaged 16.6 points in five games there last season.

Quinnipiac's long night in East Lansing

The Bobcats' opener got away early. Michigan State outscored them 42-18 over the final 15 minutes of the first half on the way to a 96-59 win. Quinnipiac allowed a 65.3% effective field goal rate (a shooting measure in which threes count 1.5 times), 286th in Division I.

The defensive glass was the other weakness. Quinnipiac grabbed only 53.3% of available defensive rebounds, 288th. Monmouth may not be built to punish that, since the Hawks rebounded just 15.2% of their own misses at St. John's.

There were usable signs. The Bobcats got to the line often, with a free throw rate of 42.9% that ranked 95th, and Lucas Sekasi ran the offense with five assists. Keith McKnight, the top returner, is the anchor; he averaged 11.0 points on a 55.4% effective field goal rate last season.

A busy week before tipoff

Neither team arrives Thursday on just one game. Quinnipiac hosts Bryant on Nov. 5 in the America East–Metro Challenge. Monmouth faces Rhode Island on Nov. 7 at Mohegan Sun in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off. Those results will say more about both rotations than the openers did.

The openers did split along betting lines. Monmouth covered at St. John's and stayed under a 155.25 total. Quinnipiac's game cleared its 152.5 total on the strength of Michigan State's offense, not its own.