Montana State vs BYU prediction: Montana State's veterans test Rob Wright's remade BYU in its home opener
A Big Sky favorite that kept most of its rotation and fires threes at will gets an early look at a ranked BYU still learning who it is around one returning starter.
- BYU's shot-making and trips to the line should carry it, but Montana State's volume three-point shooting can keep the margin unsettled into the second half.
- Montana State's three-point barrage against a BYU defense that let Ohio State fire 49.1% of its shots from deep.
- No line is posted yet. Both teams covered their openers, Montana State as a 10.75-point underdog at Colorado State.
Continuity against a rebuilt roster
This is a test of two ways to build a team. Montana State kept the core of a group the Big Sky's coaches, its media and the Blue Ribbon yearbook all picked to win the league; players on this roster logged 66.9% of last season's minutes. BYU kept almost nothing. Its players account for 26.7% of last season's minutes, and Rob Wright III is the only returning starter after AJ Dybantsa and Richie Saunders left for the NBA Draft.
That makes last season's numbers a shaky guide for the Cougars. Last season BYU finished 24th nationally in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) while Montana State sat 129th, but the BYU version on the floor Thursday is a different team. KenPom's preseason projection puts the new Cougars 33rd, and the AP poll has them 25th.
The rebuild passed its first exam. BYU beat Ohio State 94-83 at the Delta Center, with all five starters in double figures. Thursday is its first game at the Marriott Center.
Montana State lives behind the arc
The Bobcats' identity is the three. In the loss at Colorado State, 54.8% of their shots came from deep, 27th-highest in Division I. That wasn't new: last season they made 37.1% of their threes, 28th of 365.
BYU's opening-night defense invited exactly that. Ohio State took 49.1% of its shots from three, and the Buckeyes posted a 57.0% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times), 244th nationally. The Cougars also blocked nothing.
The Bobcats' bench supplied the spark at Colorado State. Howie Keene came off it to hit 4 of 6 threes for 15 points. Jed Miller, the preseason all-conference pick who shot 40.6% from three last season, doesn't appear among the six Bobcats in the opener data.
Wright and the whistle
Wright carried BYU against Ohio State: 33 points, 4 of 5 from three and 11-for-12 at the line, with 19 of those points after halftime. BYU's free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 47.4%, 64th nationally.
That pressure is a problem for a Montana State defense that fouled freely at Colorado State, where the Rams' free throw rate reached 40.7%. Last season the Bobcats were among the most disciplined teams in the country in that stat, 35th of 365. Whether the opener was a blip or a sign of a newly aggressive defense matters a lot against a guard who lives on contact.
Size, glass and the ball
BYU is taller, with a minutes-weighted average height of 78.7 inches to Montana State's 76.7. Jaxon Kohler, who averaged 8.9 rebounds at Michigan State last season, anchors that edge. He is playing under temporary eligibility tied to a court ruling whose outcome hasn't been reported.
The Bobcats rarely win second chances. Last season their offensive rebound rate was 28.2%, 284th of 365, and at Colorado State it was 20.0%.
Where they can steal possessions is on the ball. Montana State's steal rate at Colorado State ranked 49th, led by four steals from Jeremiah Davis. BYU protected the ball well in its opener, turning it over on 11.6% of possessions, 30th nationally.
Both openers cleared the total
Both teams went over and covered in their first games. Montana State covered as a 10.75-point underdog in the 84-74 loss at Colorado State, which went over a closing total of 147.75. BYU covered as a 3.5-point favorite against Ohio State, and that game cleared 160.5. Both teams come in with 10 days of rest.
Key players
- Robert Wright III (BYU): Scored 33 points against Ohio State on 4-of-5 shooting from three and 11-for-12 at the line.
- Jaxon Kohler (BYU): Averaged 8.9 rebounds at Michigan State last season and added 11 points and six boards in the opener.
- Tyler Betsey (BYU): Hit 4 of 5 threes for 15 points against Ohio State after shooting 40.7% from deep at Syracuse last season.
- Collin Chandler (BYU): Scored 15 in the opener but made only 2 of 9 threes after shooting 41% from deep at Kentucky last season.
- Jeremiah Davis (Montana State): Had 17 points and four steals at Colorado State, hitting 3 of 6 threes.
- Howie Keene (Montana State): Came off the bench to score 15 on 4-of-6 three-point shooting at Colorado State.
- Christian King (Montana State): Used 29% of possessions in the opener but shot 30.8% from the field.
- Jed Miller (Montana State): Averaged 14.9 points and shot 40.6% from three last season.
Numbers that matter
| BYU returning minutes | 26.7% | Wright is the only returning starter, so last season's BYU numbers say little about this team. |
|---|---|---|
| Montana State 3-point attempt rate | 54.8% | The 27th-highest share of shots from three in Division I, against a BYU defense that allowed heavy volume in its opener. |
| BYU free throw rate | 47.4% | Wright's trips to the line drove it, and Montana State allowed a 40.7% rate at Colorado State. |
| BYU turnover rate | 11.6% | Ranked 30th nationally, a counter to the Bobcats' opening-night steal rate, which ranked 49th. |
Montana State vs BYU: quick answers
When is Montana State vs BYU?
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.