Loyola Marymount vs South Alabama prediction: South Alabama dares LMU's rebuilt shooting lineup to fire away in Pensacola

A defense that invites the three

The inaugural Coastal Classic, part of the Pensacola Hardwood series, brings together two programs that rebuilt almost from scratch. The cleanest way to read it starts with South Alabama's defensive identity. Under Richie Riley, now in his 9th season, the Jaguars wall off the paint and accept the consequences outside. Last season their opponents' 3-point attempt rate (the share of shots taken from deep) was 65.0%, the highest in Division I. It mostly worked: opponents made just 32.7% of those threes.

The opener showed the risk. Ohio took 66.7% of its shots from three and made 42.1% of them, winning 86-77 at South Alabama. That is one game, but the scheme is a choice, not an accident, so LMU should expect the same open looks.

That suits the Lions' newcomers. All Wright made 42.2% of his threes at Xavier last season, and Christian Humphrey-Rembert hit 58 threes at Lafayette. If those shots fall, South Alabama's approach turns into a shooting contest it may not want.

Two rosters starting over

Last season's records (LMU 15-17, South Alabama 21-12) say little here. South Alabama returns just 11.6% of last season's minutes after losing Chaze Harris and Adam Olsen, now at Auburn. LMU returns 20.0%, with Rodney Brown Jr. gone to Seton Hall and Jan Vide to Virginia.

LMU's best returner is forward Aaron McBride, an efficient low-usage piece with a 118.1 offensive rating last season. The scoring load now shifts to transfers: Sensley averaged 10.9 points at UC Santa Barbara, and Donovan Rivers brings interior scoring from Jacksonville. LMU's 2025-26 defense held opponents to 47.1% inside the arc, 31st nationally, but few of the players behind that number remain.

Both teams have games before this one. LMU opens with Queens and visits Troy, and South Alabama plays at UCF. Those results will say more about either team than anything from last season.

South Alabama's new scoring core

Against Ohio, the Jaguars' offense looked functional. Jalen Langsy scored 25 points on a 33% usage rate, meaning a third of the team's possessions ended with him while he was on the floor. Diego Roman added 19 points and five assists.

The one returner with a real role, forward Stephen Williams, posted 14 points and eight rebounds. He made 65.7% of his shots last season, almost all near the rim. The problem was the other end: South Alabama allowed an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 63.2% to Ohio.

Free throws and size

South Alabama got to the line often against Ohio, posting a free throw rate of 51.9% (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt), 47th nationally. It made only 60.7% of them. Missed free throws were a habit last season too: the Jaguars shot 65.8%, 357th of 365.

LMU has the size edge, with a minutes-weighted average height of 79.0 inches to South Alabama's 77.2. That matters on the glass, where South Alabama grabbed just 15.6% of its own misses against Ohio. In a close finish, the line and second chances could swing it.