Wake Forest vs Vanderbilt prediction: Tyler Tanner and a rebuilt Vanderbilt test Wake Forest's new pieces

Tanner stays, everything else moves

The last time these teams shared a floor, Vanderbilt won 98-67 at Wake Forest on Dec. 21, 2025. Almost nobody who decided that night will matter much on Nov. 5. Vanderbilt brings back just 25.4% of last season's minutes. The one returner who truly matters is Tyler Tanner, who passed on the draft and was named to the preseason All-SEC first team.

Tanner was the engine of an offense that scored 129.5 points per 100 possessions last season, 3rd of 365 nationally. He averaged 19.5 points and 5.1 assists, and his 2.4 steals a game made him a problem at both ends. The scorers who flanked him, Tyler Nickel and Duke Miles among them, are gone, so Mark Byington's offense is now Tanner plus a transfer class.

Vanderbilt's portal haul

The headliner is Ace Glass, who averaged 16.4 points at Washington State and shot 88.2% at the line. Bangot Dak gives the Commodores a shot blocker after posting 1.6 blocks a game at Colorado. Berke Buyuktuncel (Nebraska) and Sebastian Williams-Adams (Auburn) add starting experience up front.

The rebuild showed promise in an 82-73 exhibition win over Virginia, where freshmen and transfers contributed right away. There are loose ends, though. T.O. Barrett missed that exhibition but had been back at practice for two days as of Oct. 13. Reclassified freshman Gabe Nesmith was out and not practicing at that point, which Byington called precautionary. Transfer Jalen Washington was still awaiting eligibility in the most recent report available.

Wake Forest starts nearly from scratch

Steve Forbes is breaking in 12 newcomers, eight of them transfers, after an 18-17 season that ended 13th in the ACC. Juke Harris, last season's 21.4-point scorer, left for Tennessee. The first public look at the new group was rough: a 94-77 exhibition loss to Georgetown.

The returners who remain are role players stepping up. Nate Calmese is the best of them after shooting 39.8% from three with 4.5 assists a game last season. Omaha Biliew was efficient in a small role. The frontcourt should look different: 7-footer Antonio Dorn is back on the court after an offseason injury, and big man Justin Abson joined in September after winning a fifth-year waiver. Projected starter Jamari McDowell was shut down in early October with plantar fasciitis, and Forbes said Oct. 7 he would miss a couple of weeks. Wake hasn't said whether he will be full speed by this game.

What last season's profiles hint

With rosters this new, last season's team numbers are a rough guide at best. Still, two tendencies carry Tanner's fingerprints. Vanderbilt's turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) was 14.4%, 33rd nationally, and he handles the ball. Wake's defense, meanwhile, let opponents take threes on 46.6% of their shots, the 17th-highest rate in the country. If Forbes's rebuilt defense still concedes that many looks, Glass and Tanner get open threes.

The other side of the ledger: Vanderbilt's defense sent opponents to the line often, with an opponent free-throw rate (free throws attempted per field-goal attempt) ranked 304th. That is how a short-handed road team keeps a game close, though Wake's 77.6% free-throw shooting last season came from a roster that has mostly scattered.

What to watch

• Tanner's usage: with so many new teammates, how much he shoulders early, and how Calmese holds up against his pressure.
• Wake's injury report: McDowell's foot and Dorn's minutes shape Forbes's rotation.
• Vanderbilt's eligibility and health: Barrett, Nesmith and Washington could swing Vanderbilt's depth.
• The line: none posted yet; last season's final adjusted ratings had Vanderbilt well ahead of Wake Forest.