Calumet College vs Air Force prediction: Joe Crispin's Air Force era opens against NAIA Calumet

A new coach, familiar faces

Air Force went 3-29 last season, and it changed coaches rather than players. Joe Crispin, hired from Penn State's staff in March, replaced Joe Scott, who parted ways with the program after a suspension pending an investigation. Crispin gets all five starters back, plus six freshmen.

That continuity cuts both ways. The Falcons know each other, and the academy's limits on using the transfer portal mean the improvement has to come from within. Mountain West voters weren't convinced, picking Air Force last in the preseason poll.

Where last season broke down

The offense was the core problem. Air Force finished 356th of 365 in adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), at 94.5.

Two habits drove it. The Falcons gave the ball away on 22.0% of possessions, 358th nationally, and rebounded just 21.4% of their own misses, 362nd. They also shot 64.1% at the line, last in Division I. An NAIA opponent is the right setting to see whether a new staff has tightened those details.

The defense needs work too: opponents hit 37.6% from three, 359th in the country.

Opening night in Colorado Springs

This is Air Force's home opener at Clune Arena, tipping at 6:30 p.m. local time, and the first meeting between the programs. Calumet College of St. Joseph is an NAIA school from Whiting, Indiana, coached by Jason Hawkins and playing in the Chicagoland Collegiate Athletic Conference. Little is known about its current roster.

The gap in level favors the Falcons. Bettors should watch how the line, once posted, values a team whose numbers come entirely from last season.